EFL Cup
Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Bournemouth play Aston Villa at home on 28 October 2026 · 19:45 at Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth); the referee is T. Harrington. For us, there is no clear favourite. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Attack and defence. On average Bournemouth score 4.0 goals a match in the competition and concede 0.0; for Aston Villa the figures are 3.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Bournemouth: 1W 0D 0L, goals 4–0; Aston Villa: 1W 0D 0L, goals 3–1.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 2–1 score estimate, roughly 3 goals in all, and 1–1 (10.8%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.50), and we rate it at 63%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 63% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 60% chance.
Prediction summary
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Bournemouth 4–0, Aston Villa 3–1.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 60%.
- Out: Bournemouth 0, Aston Villa 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 63%, best price 1.50). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Bournemouth: no absences. Absent for Aston Villa: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.37 | 3.70 | 2.93 |
| Market average | 2.33 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
| Lowest odds | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.15 | 81.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.59 | 1.57 | 60.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.45 | 2.37 | 39.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.45 | 2.34 | 39.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.4% |
| BTTS – no | 2.56 | 2.53 | 36.6% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 28/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.5%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Bournemouth 1–1 Aston Villa, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Form in the competition: Bournemouth 1W 0D 0L (4:0), Aston Villa 1W 0D 0L (3:1).
- Absences: Bournemouth 0, Aston Villa 0.
Who will win Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: team news and absences
Bournemouth
- No reported absences
Aston Villa
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
BournemouthWAston VillaWReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Bournemouth +0 (Asian handicap) (1.75); Both teams to score (1.50).
Who will win Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
We estimate: Bournemouth win 41%, draw 26%, Aston Villa win 33%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 28 October 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. Referee: T. Harrington.
Who will be missing?
Bournemouth: no absences. Aston Villa: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 60% (odds 1.59); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 40% (odds 2.45).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 63% (odds 1.50).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.8%), then 2–1 (8.9%) and 1–2 (7.8%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.