KNVB Cup
Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Excelsior Maassluis play Heerenveen at home on 28 October 2026 · 20:00 at Sportpark Dijkpolder (Maassluis); the referee is A. Lindhout. For us, Heerenveen (75%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
What to expect
For us, Heerenveen are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–3 score, roughly 4 goals in all, with 0–2 (10.1%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
Odds of 1.24 on the result do not offer much, so it is worth turning to the goals markets: Both teams to score (odds 1.73), which we rate at 54%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 54% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 68% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 4 goals; over 2.5 goals: 68%.
- Out: Excelsior Maassluis 0, Heerenveen 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 54%, best price 1.73). With roughly 4 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Excelsior Maassluis: no absences. Absent for Heerenveen: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 10.00 | 6.25 | 1.24 |
| Market average | 9.18 | 5.89 | 1.22 |
| Lowest odds | 7.93 | 5.70 | 1.20 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.10 | 1.09 | 85.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 1.36 | 68.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 2.92 | 31.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.93 | 1.89 | 48.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.70 | 54.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.10 | 2.04 | 45.5% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 28/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 10.0%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Excelsior Maassluis 0–2 Heerenveen, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Absences: Excelsior Maassluis 0, Heerenveen 0.
Who will win Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen: team news and absences
Excelsior Maassluis
- No reported absences
Heerenveen
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
Excelsior MaassluisDWHeerenveenReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen?
Excelsior Maassluis +2 (Asian handicap) (1.75); Both teams to score (1.73).
Who will win Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen?
We estimate: Excelsior Maassluis win 10%, draw 15%, Heerenveen win 75%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 28 October 2026, kick-off: 20:00, venue: Sportpark Dijkpolder, Maassluis. Referee: A. Lindhout.
Who will be missing?
Excelsior Maassluis: no absences. Heerenveen: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 68% (odds 1.36); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 32% (odds 3.10).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 54% (odds 1.73).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 0–2 as most likely (10.1%), then 1–2 (9.1%) and 0–3 (8.9%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.