EFL Cup
Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Liverpool play Chelsea at home on 28 October 2026 · 20:00 at Anfield (Liverpool); the referee is D. England. For us, there is no clear favourite. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Liverpool vs Chelsea: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Attack and defence. On average Liverpool score 3.0 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.0; for Chelsea the figures are 4.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Liverpool: 1W 0D 0L, goals 3–1; Chelsea: 2W 0D 0L, goals 8–3.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 2–1 score estimate, roughly 3 goals in all, and 1–1 (10.6%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.56), and we rate it at 62%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 65% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 62% chance.
Prediction summary
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Liverpool 3–1, Chelsea 8–3.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 62%.
- Out: Liverpool 0, Chelsea 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals (probability 58%, best price 1.65). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Liverpool: no absences. Absent for Chelsea: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Liverpool vs Chelsea: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.32 | 3.80 | 3.09 |
| Market average | 2.28 | 3.67 | 2.97 |
| Lowest odds | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.14 | 81.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.56 | 1.52 | 61.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.53 | 2.43 | 38.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.35 | 2.26 | 41.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.44 | 1.43 | 64.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.70 | 2.63 | 35.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 28/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.0%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Form in the competition: Liverpool 1W 0D 0L (3:1), Chelsea 2W 0D 0L (8:3).
- Absences: Liverpool 0, Chelsea 0.
Who will win Liverpool vs Chelsea?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Liverpool vs Chelsea: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Liverpool vs Chelsea: team news and absences
Liverpool
- No reported absences
Chelsea
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
LiverpoolWChelseaWWReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Liverpool vs Chelsea?
Draw or Chelsea (X2) (1.70); Over 2.5 goals (1.56).
Who will win Liverpool vs Chelsea?
We estimate: Liverpool win 42%, draw 26%, Chelsea win 32%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 28 October 2026, kick-off: 20:00, venue: Anfield, Liverpool. Referee: D. England.
Who will be missing?
Liverpool: no absences. Chelsea: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 62% (odds 1.56); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 38% (odds 2.53).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 65% (odds 1.44).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.6%), then 2–1 (9.0%) and 1–2 (7.7%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.