KNVB Cup
Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
MVV v Excelsior: 28 October 2026 · 19:00 at De Geusselt (Maastricht), with A. Bos refereeing. We have Excelsior (67%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
MVV vs Excelsior: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
What to expect
For us, Excelsior are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–2 (9.8%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.50), and we rate it at 64%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 56% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 64% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 64%.
- Out: MVV 0, Excelsior 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals (probability 57%, best price 1.73). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for MVV: no absences. Absent for Excelsior: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
MVV vs Excelsior: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 7.00 | 4.87 | 1.42 |
| Market average | 6.77 | 4.72 | 1.40 |
| Lowest odds | 6.41 | 4.50 | 1.36 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.12 | 1.11 | 83.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 2.55 | 36.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.28 | 2.16 | 43.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.65 | 56.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.13 | 43.7% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 28/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 7.6%.
At a glance
- Likely result: MVV 1–2 Excelsior, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Absences: MVV 0, Excelsior 0.
Who will win MVV vs Excelsior?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
MVV vs Excelsior: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
MVV vs Excelsior: team news and absences
MVV
- No reported absences
Excelsior
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for MVV vs Excelsior?
Under 3.5 goals (1.73); Excelsior to win (1.42).
Who will win MVV vs Excelsior?
We estimate: MVV win 14%, draw 20%, Excelsior win 67%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 28 October 2026, kick-off: 19:00, venue: De Geusselt, Maastricht. Referee: A. Bos.
Who will be missing?
MVV: no absences. Excelsior: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 64% (odds 1.50); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 36% (odds 2.70).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 56% (odds 1.67).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–2 as most likely (9.8%), then 0–2 (9.8%) and 1–1 (8.5%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.