Coupe de France
Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF (Coupe de France, 13 November 2026, 19:00): St-Philbert Gd Lieu +2 (Asian handicap) at odds of 1.72. Second tip: Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.55. The bookmakers' odds give St-Philbert Gd Lieu 14%, the draw 19% and La Roche VF 66%. The most likely score is 0–2.
St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF betting prediction
St-Philbert Gd Lieu welcome La Roche VF in a Coupe de France, 1/128-finals tie on 13 November 2026, with kick-off at 19:00 local time. The bookmakers have made the visitors heavy favourites, and our own tip is built around how large that win is likely to be rather than whether it comes.
At a glance
- Likely result: St-Philbert Gd Lieu 0–2 La Roche VF, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Absences: St-Philbert Gd Lieu 0, La Roche VF 0.
St-Philbert Gd Lieu, a side we can barely read
We have no recent results for St-Philbert Gd Lieu, so there is no run of form to set beside La Roche's. Without it we cannot judge whether the home side are in good shape or struggling, and that uncertainty runs through everything we say about them. The 8% chance the market gives them to win outright, and the 14% for a draw, are the only hard evidence we have, and they describe expectation, not what this team has done lately.
Who will win St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
La Roche VF arrive with four wins in five
La Roche VF have won four of their last five matches across all competitions, losing only once, and that defeat was a narrow 2-1 at Caen. Their wins came at Thionville Lusitanos (2-1), at home to Aubagne (3-1), at home to Bourg-en-bresse 01 (2-0) and at Gobelins (1-0). Over those five games they have scored 9 goals and conceded 4.
What we like is the pattern behind those results. Both teams found the net in three of the five, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in three of them. They kept a clean sheet in two. This is a side that wins with goals on the board, not one that grinds out 1-0 results every week, although they did win at Gobelins by exactly that margin.
St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF: last matches of both teams
St-Philbert Gd Lieu
La Roche VF
No earlier meeting and no team news
The two clubs have no known earlier meeting, so there is no head-to-head record to lean on. Neither side has any reported absentees, which means the selection question is simply about the teams as they stand. We see nothing in the squad news that should move the price either way.
St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF: team news and absences
St-Philbert Gd Lieu
- No reported absences
La Roche VF
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Odds, the handicap ladder and our main tip
The market puts La Roche VF at 77% to win, St-Philbert Gd Lieu at 8% and a draw at 14%. The handicap ladder tells a more useful story. La Roche -1 is priced at 70%, while St-Philbert +1 sits at 30%, and St-Philbert +2 at 56%. The most likely exact scores are 0-2 (12.6%), 0-3 (10.7%) and 0-1 (9.9%), which confirms that the money expects a clear away win.
We are not backing a home win. Our main tip is St-Philbert Gd Lieu +2 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.82 (chance 56%). The bet wins unless the home side lose by three or more goals, and a defeat by exactly two returns the stake. That gives St-Philbert a generous cushion against a side the market rates at only 8% to win the game.
- The market gives this line a 56% chance, so the bookmakers themselves see it as more likely than not.
- The best odds on it are 1.82, which pays enough for us to stake on it.
- At 56% the line is the one part of the handicap ladder where we think the price and our view agree.
On the likeliest scores the tip wins at 0-1, 1-1 and 1-2, returns the stake at 0-2 and 1-3, and loses only at 0-3. That three-goal away win is the result that hurts, and it is also the second most likely score in the market.
St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 7.10 | 5.98 | 1.44 |
| Market average | 6.48 | 4.86 | 1.39 |
| Lowest odds | 5.90 | 4.33 | 1.35 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.14 | 81.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.55 | 1.50 | 60.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.44 | 2.32 | 39.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.47 | 2.28 | 40.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.80 | 1.74 | 53.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 1.98 | 46.9% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 13/11/26, 18:13. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 8.1%.
Another tip: Over 2.5 goals
Our second tip is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.50 (chance 64%). The case rests on La Roche's recent matches, where more than 2.5 goals went in three times out of five. The market's 64% at 1.50 backs the same instinct, so we are comfortable adding it alongside the handicap.
On the likeliest scores the over 2.5 tip wins at 0-3, 1-2 and 1-3 and loses at 0-2, 0-1 and 1-1. The 0-2 scoreline is the one that hurts both selections at once, since it loses this bet and returns the handicap stake, so the two picks only partly hedge each other.
St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Other bets worth a look
- Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.73, with a market chance of 57%. It fits our handicap view, because a home side that loses by two can still keep the total low.
- Both teams to score: no at odds 1.81, with a market chance of 54%. La Roche have kept a clean sheet in two of their last five matches, and that is the kind of record that makes a shut-out for St-Philbert a live option.
- La Roche VF to win at odds 1.24, with a market chance of 77%. It is the safest price on the board, though we would not expect much value from it.
We expect La Roche to win and the bookmakers agree by a wide margin, so the value lies in the margin. If St-Philbert keep the defeat to two goals, our main stake comes back at worst. Our knowledge of the home side is thin, and we say so plainly, which is why the stakes stay modest.
Returns calculator
Match events
Questions and answers
What do we tip for St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF?
St-Philbert Gd Lieu +2 (Asian handicap) (1.72); Over 2.5 goals (1.55).
Who will win St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF?
We estimate: St-Philbert Gd Lieu win 14%, draw 19%, La Roche VF win 66%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 13 November 2026, kick-off: 19:00, venue: to be confirmed.
Who will be missing?
St-Philbert Gd Lieu: no absences. La Roche VF: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 61% (odds 1.55); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 39% (odds 2.44).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 53% (odds 1.80).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 0–2 as most likely (10.4%), then 1–2 (9.9%) and 0–1 (9.4%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.