EFL Cup
Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Sunderland against Brentford on 28 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stadium of Light (Sunderland), and G. Ward will referee. Brentford (53%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Sunderland vs Brentford: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Attack and defence. On average Sunderland score 1.0 goals a match in the competition and concede 0.0; for Brentford the figures are 4.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Sunderland: 1W 0D 0L, goals 1–0; Brentford: 2W 0D 0L, goals 8–2.
- Head to head. From 5 meetings: 1 win for Sunderland, 2 wins for Brentford and 2 draws, with the goals at 6–10.
What to expect
For us, Brentford are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (11.2%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.67), and we rate it at 56%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 56% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 54% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 5; Sunderland 1 win, 2 draws, Brentford 2 wins.
- An average of 3.2 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Sunderland 1–0, Brentford 8–2.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 54%.
- Out: Sunderland 0, Brentford 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 56%, best price 1.67). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Sunderland: no absences. Absent for Brentford: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Sunderland vs Brentford: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 4.55 | 3.90 | 1.85 |
| Market average | 4.30 | 3.81 | 1.78 |
| Lowest odds | 4.00 | 3.50 | 1.73 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.22 | 76.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.77 | 1.74 | 54.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.12 | 2.08 | 45.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.89 | 2.75 | 33.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.66 | 55.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.12 | 2.10 | 44.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 28/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.8%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Sunderland 1–1 Brentford, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Form in the competition: Sunderland 1W 0D 0L (1:0), Brentford 2W 0D 0L (8:2).
- H2H: 5 matches: Sunderland 1W 2D 2L, goals 6–10.
- Absences: Sunderland 0, Brentford 0.
Who will win Sunderland vs Brentford?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Sunderland vs Brentford: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Sunderland vs Brentford: team news and absences
Sunderland
- No reported absences
Brentford
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
SunderlandWBrentfordWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Sunderland vs Brentford?
Sunderland +1 (Asian handicap) (1.62); Both teams to score (1.67).
Who will win Sunderland vs Brentford?
We estimate: Sunderland win 22%, draw 25%, Brentford win 53%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 28 October 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Stadium of Light, Sunderland. Referee: G. Ward.
Who will be missing?
Sunderland: no absences. Brentford: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 54% (odds 1.77); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 46% (odds 2.12).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 56% (odds 1.67).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.2%), then 0–1 (10.6%) and 1–2 (9.8%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.