Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
VfL Bochum play FSV Mainz 05 at home on 27 October 2026 · 17:00 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion (Bochum); the referee is M. Bacher. For us, FSV Mainz 05 (56%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Attack and defence. On average VfL Bochum score 2.0 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.0; for FSV Mainz 05 the figures are 9.0 scored and 0.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. VfL Bochum: 1W 0D 0L, goals 2–1; FSV Mainz 05: 1W 0D 0L, goals 9–0.
- Head to head. From 11 meetings: 3 wins for VfL Bochum, 6 wins for FSV Mainz 05 and 2 draws, with the goals at 15–21.
What to expect
For us, FSV Mainz 05 are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–2 (9.9%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.60), and we rate it at 60%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 59% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 60% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 11; VfL Bochum 3 wins, 2 draws, FSV Mainz 05 6 wins.
- An average of 3.3 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: VfL Bochum 2–1, FSV Mainz 05 9–0.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 60%.
- Out: VfL Bochum 0, FSV Mainz 05 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals (probability 60%, best price 1.57). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for VfL Bochum: no absences. Absent for FSV Mainz 05: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 5.02 | 4.35 | 1.78 |
| Market average | 4.54 | 4.01 | 1.65 |
| Lowest odds | 4.10 | 3.74 | 1.53 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 1.15 | 81.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 1.55 | 60.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.41 | 2.37 | 39.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.47 | 2.32 | 40.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.56 | 59.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.55 | 2.29 | 40.7% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 27/10/26, 16:22. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 7.8%.
At a glance
- Likely result: VfL Bochum 1–2 FSV Mainz 05, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Form in the competition: VfL Bochum 1W 0D 0L (2:1), FSV Mainz 05 1W 0D 0L (9:0).
- H2H: 11 matches: VfL Bochum 3W 2D 6L, goals 15–21.
- Absences: VfL Bochum 0, FSV Mainz 05 0.
Who will win VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05: team news and absences
VfL Bochum
- No reported absences
FSV Mainz 05
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
VfL BochumWFSV Mainz 05WHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 -0.75 (Asian handicap) (2.00); Over 2.5 goals (1.60).
Who will win VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05?
We estimate: VfL Bochum win 21%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 win 56%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 27 October 2026, kick-off: 17:00, venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum. Referee: M. Bacher.
Who will be missing?
VfL Bochum: no absences. FSV Mainz 05: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 60% (odds 1.60); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 40% (odds 2.41).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 59% (odds 1.62).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–2 as most likely (9.9%), then 1–1 (9.9%) and 0–2 (8.6%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.