Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 5–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Bayer Leverkusen against 1. FC Nürnberg on 28 October 2026 · 19:45 at BayArena (Leverkusen), and F. Zwayer will referee. Bayer Leverkusen (74%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Attack and defence. On average Bayer Leverkusen score 4.0 goals a match in the competition and concede 0.0; for 1. FC Nürnberg the figures are 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Bayer Leverkusen: 1W 0D 0L, goals 4–0; 1. FC Nürnberg: 0W 1D 0L, goals 1–1.
- Head to head. From 11 meetings: 7 wins for Bayer Leverkusen, 2 wins for 1. FC Nürnberg and 2 draws, with the goals at 22–9.
What to expect
For us, Bayer Leverkusen are the more likely winners. We estimate a 3–1 score, roughly 4 goals in all, with 2–1 (8.9%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
Odds of 1.28 on the result do not offer much, so it is worth turning to the goals markets: Both teams to score (odds 1.55), which we rate at 60%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 60% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 73% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 11; Bayer Leverkusen 7 wins, 2 draws, 1. FC Nürnberg 2 wins.
- An average of 2.8 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Bayer Leverkusen 4–0, 1. FC Nürnberg 1–1.
- Expected: roughly 4 goals; over 2.5 goals: 73%.
- Out: Bayer Leverkusen 0, 1. FC Nürnberg 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 60%, best price 1.55). With roughly 4 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Bayer Leverkusen: no absences. Absent for 1. FC Nürnberg: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.28 | 6.39 | 9.00 |
| Market average | 1.27 | 6.05 | 8.78 |
| Lowest odds | 1.26 | 5.75 | 8.63 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.07 | 1.06 | 88.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.31 | 1.28 | 72.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.60 | 3.43 | 27.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.83 | 1.75 | 53.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.55 | 1.54 | 60.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.32 | 39.9% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 28/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.5%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 1. FC Nürnberg, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Form in the competition: Bayer Leverkusen 1W 0D 0L (4:0), 1. FC Nürnberg 0W 1D 0L (1:1).
- H2H: 11 matches: Bayer Leverkusen 7W 2D 2L, goals 22–9.
- Absences: Bayer Leverkusen 0, 1. FC Nürnberg 0.
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg: team news and absences
Bayer Leverkusen
- No reported absences
1. FC Nürnberg
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
Bayer LeverkusenW1. FC NürnbergDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Over 3.5 goals (1.83); Bayer Leverkusen to win (1.28).
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
We estimate: Bayer Leverkusen win 74%, draw 16%, 1. FC Nürnberg win 11%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 28 October 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: BayArena, Leverkusen. Referee: F. Zwayer.
Who will be missing?
Bayer Leverkusen: no absences. 1. FC Nürnberg: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 73% (odds 1.31); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 27% (odds 3.60).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 60% (odds 1.55).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (8.9%), then 2–0 (8.9%) and 3–1 (8.2%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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