Georgia vs Hungary: prediction, tip and odds, 14 November 2026, UEFA Nations League

Georgia vs Hungary betting prediction

Georgia welcome Hungary for UEFA Nations League Matchweek 5 on 14 November 2026 at 17:00, and we lean toward Under 2.5 goals at odds 1.59 (chance 62%). The hosts are still waiting for their first goal in this competition, and that gap in their attack is the key factor behind our pick.

Georgia at home: no goals yet

Georgia sit fourth with 2 points from 4 matches, having won none, drawn 2 and lost 2. Their goal tally reads 0 scored and 2 conceded. At home, they have no wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, again without scoring and with 1 conceded. These numbers cover this competition alone, and we accept them as they stand, since they point to a side that struggles to create chances in front of goal.

Form over the longer stretch is just as stagnant. Georgia have taken two draws and two defeats from their last four in all competitions, the losses including a 0-1 reverse at home to Northern Ireland, and the stalemates including a 0-0 home draw with Ukraine. Goals have been absent throughout that spell, although the back line kept a clean sheet in two of the four. We would not back a team struggling to find the net to suddenly do so against Hungary on home soil.

Hungary away: second place with a narrow edge

Hungary sit second in the standings on 7 points from four games, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. They have scored 3 and conceded 2 so far. Away from home they have taken 1 win and 1 draw without a loss, netting 2 and letting in 1. These figures come from this competition and suggest a side that gathers points without running up big scorelines.

Over the most recent four games, across every competition, they collected two wins, one draw and one loss. Their 2-1 victory away to Ukraine and their 1-0 win over Georgia on home soil sit alongside a 0-1 home defeat to Ukraine. In total they found the net 3 times and let in 2, and just one of those four contests finished with more than 2.5 goals. That profile tells us a lot about how they operate: they pick up results, yet they seldom stage a high-scoring affair.

One meeting, one lesson, no absences

Hungary and Georgia have faced each other just one time, and the Hungarians took the win 1-0 on 2 October 2026. Georgia failed to find the net in that match. No absences have been flagged for either team, so team news does not shift our outlook. Our assessment rests purely on past scores and the odds on offer.

What the bookmakers expect and our tip

Hungary are the favourites with an implied probability of 40%, and the top price on them is 2.45. Georgia sit on 29% with a best price of 3.30, while the draw is priced at 31% with a best price of 3.18. Across the three outcomes, the overround comes to 7.0%, so the lines are tight. For totals, over 2.5 goals is priced at 38% with a top quote of 2.55, and under 2.5 goals at 62% with a top quote of 1.59. Expect roughly 2 goals in total, with each team averaging about 1.

We like Under 2.5 goals at odds 1.59 (chance 62%) as the main play. The sides' recent form backs it up, and the price is not the reason we are on it.

• In none of Georgia's last 4 matches have more than 2.5 goals been scored.
• In their last 4 matches, Georgia have managed a shutout 2 times.
• In just 1 of Hungary's last 4 matches have more than 2.5 goals been scored.
• We project roughly 2 goals in total.

Under picks up the win on 0-1, 1-1, 1-0, 0-0 and 0-2, and only 1-2 breaks it. For a fixture where neither side's attack has been clicking, that is a broad safety margin.

Our second pick is the double chance Draw or Hungary (X2) at 1.37 odds, with a 71% chance. Backing it lands on 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-2 and 0-2, and the only scoreline that sinks it is 1-0.
Hungary have claimed 2 wins from their last 4 matches and have lost just 1. Georgia, by contrast, have not won any of theirs. In this competition Hungary have 1 away win, 1 draw and no defeats, and they sit on 7 table points against Georgia's 2. That record makes us confident they will avoid defeat.

Other bets we would consider

Beyond the two main picks, these are the extra bets we would consider:

• Hungary +0.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.39 (chance 70%). Hungary only need to avoid a defeat: a draw or a Hungary victory both land this bet for you, and it loses only if they are beaten.
• Georgia +1 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.28 (chance 76%). The bet stays alive as long as Georgia do not drop a margin of two goals or greater; a single-goal loss refunds the stake.
• Under 9.5 corners at odds 1.58 (chance 61%). We anticipate a game that stays tightly managed instead of opening up.

Back the low-scoring draw

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at 1.59, paired with Draw or Hungary at 1.37. Georgia have failed to find the net in each of their last four outings, while Hungary have scored just 3 goals across theirs. Both sets of form point the same way, and a 0-0 or 1-0 finish would suit us well.