Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina (UEFA Nations League, 14 November 2026, 19:45): Sweden -1 (Asian handicap) at odds of 1.87. Second tip: Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.55. The bookmakers' odds give Sweden 62%, the draw 22% and Bosnia & Herzegovina 16%. The most likely score is 2–1.
Wins: Sweden win by 2 or more. Stake back: Sweden win by 1. Loses: a draw, Sweden lose.
Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina betting prediction
Our pick for Sweden versus Bosnia & Herzegovina, UEFA Nations League Matchweek 5, kicking off 14 November 2026 at 19:45, is Sweden -1 (Asian handicap) at 1.91, with a 51% probability. Bookmakers price Sweden at 62% to take the match outright, so the straight result is not where we find value. What we need to settle is whether Sweden will win by a margin of two or more goals, since that is the outcome this wager depends on.
At a glance
- Likely result: Sweden 2–1 Bosnia & Herzegovina, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sweden 1st (10 points), Bosnia & Herzegovina 2nd (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Sweden 3W 1D 0L (7:3), Bosnia & Herzegovina 2W 2D 0L (6:3).
- H2H: 1 match: Sweden 0W 1D 0L, goals 1–1.
- Absences: Sweden 0, Bosnia & Herzegovina 0.
Why we trust Sweden at home
Sweden lead the competition with 10 points from 4 matches, collecting 3 wins and 1 draw, and their goals stand at 7:3. Bosnia & Herzegovina are second on 8 points from 2 wins and 2 draws, and they remain unbeaten in the competition as well. We back Sweden because they have been the sharper side in front of their own fans, winning both home matches and scoring 5:2 at home. Both teams concede 0.8 per match here, so the edge lies in attack, where Sweden average 1.8 goals per match against 1.5 for Bosnia.
Standings and form
League B – Group D
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sweden | 4 | 3-1-0 | 7:3 | 10 |
| 2 |  Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4 | 2-2-0 | 6:3 | 8 |
| 3 |  Poland | 4 | 1-1-2 | 7:4 | 4 |
| 4 |  Romania | 4 | 0-0-4 | 3:13 | 0 |
Recent matches
Sweden
Home and away
Where the goals come from and what they tell us
Across all competitions, Sweden have taken 3 wins and 1 draw from their last four matches without a single defeat, while Bosnia have collected 2 wins and 2 draws in theirs. Because these numbers span every competition rather than just this one, they will not match the standings table, which reflects this competition alone. Sweden's 1-0 victory in Romania on 5/10/26 was their only away win in that stretch, showing they can secure results on the road as well as at home. Bosnia's best performance was a 4-2 win in Romania on 28/9/26.
Head-to-head data offers little to go on. The sole recent meeting, Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-1 Sweden on 2/10/26, ended level in Bosnia, and Sweden failed to break away in that game. A single result shouldn't drive a prediction, but it does suggest a runaway scoreline is unlikely.
Who will win Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Our reasons for the main tip
A straight Sweden win at 1.57 is not the play for us, since that number offers thin value once the 62% is accounted for. The handicap demands a wider winning margin, and in our view the recent form backs that up.
- Sweden have taken 3 wins from their last 4 outings, and that recent run is what our pick rests on.
- Sweden have gone unbeaten in their last four outings.
- Sweden top the standings on 10 points, a pair of clear of Bosnia & Herzegovina, who have 8.
- In this competition, Sweden are unbeaten at home and have collected two wins from their two home matches.
The payout rules are straightforward. A 2-1 Sweden victory and a 1-0 win give the stake back, while 2-0, 3-1 and 3-0 wins pay out, and a 1-1 draw is a loss. Our exposure lies in the tight results, which we take on at a 51% probability.
Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina: last matches of both teams
Sweden
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Head to head
All matchesAnother tip: Under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals is our pick for this game, priced at 1.55 with a 62% chance. Over their last four outings, Sweden went beyond 2.5 goals just twice, while Bosnia & Herzegovina managed it once. Bosnia also held a clean sheet in two of those four, so a low-scoring affair looks likely. Bookmakers project around 2 goals for Sweden and 1 for Bosnia, roughly 3 combined, which sits well within this line.
This tip settles as a win on 2-1, 2-0, 1-1, 1-0 and 3-0, and it loses only on 3-1. That is worth knowing if you stake on both tips, because the two bets split on 3-1, 2-1, 1-1 and 1-0.
Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.55 | 4.60 | 6.41 |
| Market average | 1.51 | 4.30 | 5.75 |
| Lowest odds | 1.45 | 3.90 | 4.84 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 1.17 | 80.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.63 | 1.59 | 59.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.45 | 2.33 | 40.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.47 | 2.42 | 38.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.68 | 1.66 | 56.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.12 | 43.9% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 13/11/26, 16:16. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 7.0%.
Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Other bets we would look at
Prefer something other than our top pick? Here are the alternatives from our list that we would still back, priced as shown. Each one fits alongside our main selection.
- Backing Sweden at 1.57 (62% chance) is the straightforward pick if the match result is all you're after.
- Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.20 (chance 80%), which lines up well with the three goals we expect.
- Sweden -0.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.57 (chance 62%), meaning Sweden needs a win by at least one goal.
- Under 10.5 corners at odds 1.51 (chance 66%), a pick for those who would rather stay clear of the match result.
Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina: team news and absences
Sweden
- No reported absences
Bosnia & Herzegovina
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
SwedenWDWWBosnia & HerzegovinaWDWDOur verdict before the whistle
Our view is that Sweden will take the points and win by a margin large enough for the handicap to land. Neither side has reported any absences, so the team sheets shouldn't interfere with what the recent form suggests. The main risk is a tight home victory, and the 1-1 draw in Bosnia shows how stubborn Bosnia can be against Sweden.
Returns calculator
Match events
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?
Sweden -1 (Asian handicap) (1.87); Under 3.5 goals (1.55).
Who will win Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?
We estimate: Sweden win 62%, draw 22%, Bosnia & Herzegovina win 16%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 14 November 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Strawberry Arena, Solna. Referee: Simone Sozza.
Who will be missing?
Sweden: no absences. Bosnia & Herzegovina: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 59% (odds 1.63); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 41% (odds 2.45).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 56% (odds 1.68).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (10.0%), then 2–0 (10.0%) and 1–1 (9.7%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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