Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Pafos v Riga: 22 October 2026 · 17:45 at Alphamega Stadium (Kolossi), with M. Barbu refereeing. We have Pafos (53%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Pafos vs Riga: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Pafos are 27th in the table, on 1 point after 2 matches (0W 1D 1L), and Riga are 21st, on 2 points (0W 2D 0L).
What to expect
For us, Pafos are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (11.2%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.75), and we rate it at 55%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 55% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 53% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 53%.
- Out: Pafos 0, Riga 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 55%, best price 1.75). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Pafos: no absences. Absent for Riga: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Pafos vs Riga: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.88 | 3.90 | 4.59 |
| Market average | 1.78 | 3.71 | 4.29 |
| Lowest odds | 1.54 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.23 | 75.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 1.78 | 53.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.11 | 2.02 | 46.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.11 | 2.91 | 32.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.75 | 1.70 | 54.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.05 | 45.3% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 22/10/26, 16:28. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.7%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Pafos 1–1 Riga, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Pafos 27th (1 point), Riga 21st (2 points).
- Absences: Pafos 0, Riga 0.
Who will win Pafos vs Riga?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Pafos vs Riga: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Pafos vs Riga: team news and absences
Pafos
- No reported absences
Riga
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Panathinaikos | 2 | 2-0-0 | 7:2 | 6 |
| 2 |  FC Lugano | 2 | 2-0-0 | 8:4 | 6 |
| 3 |  Brann | 2 | 2-0-0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 4 |  Trabzonspor | 2 | 2-0-0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 5 |  Twente | 2 | 2-0-0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 6 |  Monaco | 2 | 2-0-0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 7 |  St. Truiden | 2 | 2-0-0 | 3:0 | 6 |
| 8 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 2-0-0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 9 |  Brighton | 2 | 1-1-0 | 4:0 | 4 |
| 10 |  FC Copenhagen | 2 | 1-1-0 | 5:2 | 4 |
| 11 |  Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 1-1-0 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 12 |  Mjällby AIF | 2 | 1-1-0 | 3:1 | 4 |
| 13 |  Ajax | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 14 |  Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 15 |  Atalanta | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 16 |  SC Braga | 2 | 1-0-1 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 17 |  Gent | 2 | 1-0-1 | 1:2 | 3 |
| 18 |  SC Freiburg | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:5 | 3 |
| 19 |  FC Nordsjælland | 2 | 0-2-0 | 3:3 | 2 |
| 20 |  Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 0-2-0 | 2:2 | 2 |
| 21 | Riga | 2 | 0-2-0 | 2:2 | 2 |
| 22 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 2 | 0-1-1 | 4:5 | 1 |
| 23 |  CSKA Sofia | 2 | 0-1-1 | 3:4 | 1 |
| 24 |  FK Jablonec | 2 | 0-1-1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 25 |  FC Midtjylland | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 26 |  Aarhus | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 27 | Pafos | 2 | 0-1-1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 28 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 29 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 30 |  Getafe | 2 | 0-1-1 | 3:6 | 1 |
| 31 |  Kairat Almaty | 2 | 0-1-1 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 32 |  FC Thun | 2 | 0-0-2 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 33 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 2 | 0-0-2 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 34 |  KuPS | 2 | 0-0-2 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2 | 0-0-2 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 36 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 2 | 0-0-2 | 1:8 | 0 |
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Pafos vs Riga?
Riga +0.75 (Asian handicap) (2.04); Both teams to score (1.75).
Who will win Pafos vs Riga?
We estimate: Pafos win 53%, draw 25%, Riga win 22%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 22 October 2026, kick-off: 17:45, venue: Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi. Referee: M. Barbu.
Who will be missing?
Pafos: no absences. Riga: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 53% (odds 1.86); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 47% (odds 2.11).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 55% (odds 1.75).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.2%), then 1–0 (10.6%) and 2–1 (9.8%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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