Bet with Freshbet →Plymouth Parkway v Berkhamsted: 9 November 2026 · 19:30. We see little between the teams. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Plymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted betting prediction
Plymouth Parkway welcome Berkhamsted to the FA Cup 1/128-finals on 9 November 2026, with the whistle set for 19:30. Expected goals sit at 2 for the hosts and 1 for the visitors, so the market leans toward a narrow home win. The most probable exact scores are 1-1 at 11.3%, 2-1 at 9.0% and 1-0 at 8.4%. Taken together, these figures suggest a home advantage without a one-sided scoreline, and that is the angle we would use when weighing a bet on this tie.
Plymouth's back line is where our attention goes first
Plymouth have won all four of their matches in this competition, scoring nine and conceding two. That works out to 2.3 goals for and 0.5 against per game. The defensive record is the figure that stands out most. Letting in only two goals in four outings suggests a side that is tough to get past.
The data set is limited, and it only reflects this one competition. It tells us nothing about how Plymouth have performed in the league or in other cup ties. Even so, we weigh it heavily, since it is the strongest pattern we have to go on for the hosts.
Berkhamsted score more, and that comes with a cost
Berkhamsted have also gone undefeated in this competition, collecting four victories in as many outings. Their record stands at 11 goals scored and four conceded, equating to 2.8 scored and 1.0 conceded on average per game. On those numbers, the away side pose the greater threat going forward, yet they also concede more per game than Plymouth do.
That is the tension running through this tie. On this evidence Berkhamsted can hurt anyone, but they also concede more goals per game than the home side. Keep in mind that these figures come only from this competition and may read differently against other opponents.
Two meetings with one win for Plymouth
Only two previous meetings exist between these sides. Plymouth Parkway took one win and one draw from them, and Berkhamsted failed to win either. Plymouth also scored 4-2 in total across the pair.
Plymouth won 2-0 at home in the latest meeting, on 7 February 2026. The earlier fixture, on 20 September 2025, ended 2-2 at Berkhamsted. That stalemate says more about the matchup, since the away side has shown it can keep pace with Plymouth here despite the more recent defeat.
No injury or suspension news to consider
Neither side has any reported absences, so availability plays no part in our read. Our assessment is driven instead by the competition numbers and the head-to-head history.
Where the market stands on the result
Bookmakers rate Plymouth Parkway as the likelier winner at 42%, with best odds of 2.35. The draw sits at 26% with best odds of 3.75, while Berkhamsted are given 32% with best odds of 3.19. The bookmaker overround on this market comes to 8.7%. Taken together, the prices point to the home side as favourites, yet they do not leave the visitors looking like a long shot.
Best bet for Plymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted: Berkhamsted +0.25
Our top pick is Berkhamsted +0.25 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.95 (chance 52%). We divide the stake evenly: half goes on Berkhamsted +0 and half on Berkhamsted +0.5. On the +0 line, a Berkhamsted victory collects, a draw returns the stake, and a defeat is lost. On the +0.5 line, the wager cashes in as long as Berkhamsted do not fall short by a margin of one goal or greater.
The case rests on the market's 52% chance and the 1.95 price on offer, and nothing beyond that. Across the likeliest scores, 1-2 and 0-1 pay out in full, 1-1 gives back half the stake, while 2-1, 1-0 and 2-0 lose. Put simply, any home victory ruins the wager. The result that would ruin it is a narrow home victory, so that is the scoreline we will monitor most closely.
Second tip: keeping it under three and a half
Our runner-up pick is Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.48 (chance 64%). The market puts the chance at 64% with best odds of 1.48, a price we are glad to accept. The bet lands on 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 and 2-0, which means it holds up against each of the most probable scorelines we examined. It is the more comfortable of our two selections.
Other options for extra protection
- Berkhamsted +1.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.21 (chance 78%). Only a defeat by a margin of two or more goals would sink this line, making it the broadest cover we would weigh up next to the primary pick.
- Draw or Berkhamsted (X2) at odds 1.67 (chance 58%). It wins if the match is level or the visitors take it, and it fits our main tip well.
- Berkhamsted +0.75 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.53 (chance 64%). Split the stake evenly between Berkhamsted +0.5 and Berkhamsted +1; if Plymouth take a one-goal win, the +1 half still returns, so the visitors stay alive in that outcome.
- Under 10.5 corners at odds 1.73 (chance 54%). The corner market is the only evidence behind this pick, so the value rests entirely on the price.
The score we expect most: 1-1
The single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. If the match ends that way, our main tip returns half the stake, while the under lands comfortably. A narrow home success by a single goal would be no shock to us, and it is the outcome that does the most damage to our position, yet the draw is where the figures concentrate. For one line to follow, back Berkhamsted to pick up at least a point, with the total kept below three and a half.
Plymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.16 | 3.90 | 3.19 |
| Market average | 2.11 | 3.62 | 3.04 |
| Lowest odds | 2.05 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 1.18 | 78.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 1.64 | 57.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 2.18 | 42.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.63 | 2.56 | 36.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.53 | 60.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.31 | 40.0% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 5/11/26, 02:30. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 8.1%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Plymouth Parkway 1–1 Berkhamsted, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Form in the competition: Plymouth Parkway 4W 0D 0L (9:2), Berkhamsted 4W 0D 0L (11:4).
- H2H: 2 matches: Plymouth Parkway 1W 1D 0L, goals 4–2.
- Absences: Plymouth Parkway 0, Berkhamsted 0.
Who will win Plymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Plymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Plymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted: team news and absences
Plymouth Parkway
- No reported absences
Berkhamsted
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
Plymouth ParkwayWWWWBerkhamstedWWWWHead to head
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Plymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted?
Berkhamsted +0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.98); Under 3.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win Plymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted?
We estimate: Plymouth Parkway win 44%, draw 26%, Berkhamsted win 30%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 9 November 2026, kick-off: 19:30, venue: to be confirmed.
Who will be missing?
Plymouth Parkway: no absences. Berkhamsted: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 57% (odds 1.67); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 43% (odds 2.20).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 60% (odds 1.57).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.1%), then 2–1 (9.1%) and 1–0 (8.2%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.