Bet with Freshbet →Tavernes play Valencia at home on 10 November 2026 · 20:00 at Estadio de Mestalla (Valencia). For us, Valencia (95%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Tavernes vs Valencia betting prediction
Tavernes host Valencia in the Copa del Rey round of 128 on 10 November 2026, kick-off 20:00, at Estadio de Mestalla in Valencia. The bookmakers have made this one lopsided. They give Valencia a 95% chance at odds 1.00, and the expected goals sit at 4 for Valencia and 1 for Tavernes. Our main tip is Valencia, but the more interesting question is how the goals fall, and that is where our second pick comes from.
How has Valencia been running lately?
Valencia's last five matches come from all competitions, not only this one, so they tell us about general sharpness rather than anything specific to the cup. Those five brought one win, two draws and two defeats, with 6 goals scored and 7 conceded. The latest result was a 1-0 away win at Elche on 1 November. Before that came a 2-3 home defeat to Real Sociedad, a 2-2 draw at Racing Santander, a goalless home draw with Athletic Club and a 1-2 home defeat to Villarreal. We like the away win and the fact that Valencia kept a clean sheet in two of the five. We do not like how easily they gave up goals at home to Real Sociedad and Villarreal. Tavernes have no recent results in our data, so we cannot set their form beside Valencia's. We would rather admit that gap than invent a comparison.
Where will the goals come from?
Both teams scored in three of Valencia's last five matches, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in three of them. Valencia failed to score in only one of the five, which tells us their attack does not switch off for long. The expected total of about five goals fits that picture, with the bulk of it expected from the visitors. The market's over lines are very high, with over 2.5 goals at 96% and over 3.5 goals at 89%. We read that as bookmakers expecting plenty of goals from Valencia, not as a verdict that Tavernes will be shut out.
Have these two met before?
No earlier meeting between Tavernes and Valencia is known to us, so there is no head-to-head record to lean on. Any read on this tie has to come from Valencia's recent results and the expected goals figures, and we are comfortable working from those.
Who is missing for either side?
No absences are reported for Tavernes or for Valencia. That means no team-sheet story to chase before kick-off, and neither side walks into this tie with a known gap.
Best bet for Tavernes vs Valencia: Valencia to win
Our main tip is Valencia to win at odds 1.00, with a chance of 95%. We back it as a banker, not as a value play. At odds of 1.00 the bet returns the stake and nothing more, so the only sensible use is as the anchor of a wider plan, and we would not stake heavily on it. The argument for it is the market itself: it gives Valencia 95% at best odds 1.00. The bet wins on 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5, 1-3 and 1-4, and it does not need Tavernes to score to succeed.
Another tip: Both teams to score
Our second tip is both teams to score at odds 5.95, with a chance of 22%. This is the price that interests us. Both teams scored in three of Valencia's last five matches, and Valencia failed to score in only one of them. The expected total is about five goals, and the market gives this outcome 22% at best odds 5.95. We are not saying Tavernes will score. We are saying the price on a Tavernes goal looks generous next to what the market expects from the match as a whole. The bet wins on 1-3 and 1-4 and loses on 0-2, 0-3, 0-4 and 0-5. That is a narrow path, and we know it. At 5.95 we think it is worth the risk.
Which other markets do we leave alone?
We recommend no other bets for this match. The lines below only show what the bookmakers expect, and none of them is a selection of ours:
- Over 1.5 goals: 98%, best odds 1.00; under 1.5 goals: 2%, best odds 51.00
- Over 2.5 goals: 96%, best odds 1.01; under 2.5 goals: 4%, best odds 23.00
- Over 3.5 goals: 89%, best odds 1.07; under 3.5 goals: 11%, best odds 9.00
- Both teams to score, no: 78%, best odds 1.30
The bookmaker margin on the match result is 5.8%. Over 2.5 at 1.01 gives almost nothing back, and we would rather keep the stake for the second tip.
A last word on the likeliest score
The most likely exact scores are 0-3 at 8.4%, 0-4 at 8.4% and 1-3 at 7.1%. Our pick is 1-3, because it is the only one of these that wins both of our tips. Valencia take it, and Tavernes find the net once. It sits close to the expected goals split of 1 and 4, and that is a fair place to end the night.
Tavernes vs Valencia: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 51.00 | 26.00 | 1.00 |
| Market average | 51.00 | 26.00 | 1.00 |
| Lowest odds | 51.00 | 26.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.00 | 1.00 | 98.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.01 | 1.01 | 95.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 23.00 | 23.00 | 4.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.07 | 1.07 | 89.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 5.95 | 4.68 | 21.6% |
| BTTS – no | 1.30 | 1.20 | 78.4% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 28/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.8%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Tavernes 0–3 Valencia, roughly 5 goals in total.
- Absences: Tavernes 0, Valencia 0.
Who will win Tavernes vs Valencia?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Tavernes vs Valencia: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
Tavernes vs Valencia: team news and absences
Tavernes
- No reported absences
Valencia
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
TavernesDDValenciaReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Tavernes vs Valencia?
Valencia to win (1.00); Both teams to score (5.95).
Who will win Tavernes vs Valencia?
We estimate: Tavernes win 2%, draw 4%, Valencia win 95%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 10 November 2026, kick-off: 20:00, venue: Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia.
Who will be missing?
Tavernes: no absences. Valencia: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 96% (odds 1.01); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 4% (odds 23.00).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 22% (odds 5.95).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 0–3 as most likely (8.4%), then 0–4 (8.4%) and 1–3 (7.1%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.