Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
AD Ceuta FC play Sporting Gijón at home on 1 November 2026 · 15:15 at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube (Ceuta); the referee is Ojaos Valera, Alejandro. For us, there is no clear favourite. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijón: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. AD Ceuta FC are 22nd in the table, on 5 points after 12 matches (1W 2D 9L), and Sporting Gijón are 6th, on 22 points (7W 1D 4L).
- Attack and defence. On average AD Ceuta FC score 0.9 goals a match in the competition and concede 2.3; for Sporting Gijón the figures are 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
- Form in the competition. AD Ceuta FC: 1W 2D 8L, goals 10–25; Sporting Gijón: 6W 1D 4L, goals 11–13.
- Head to head. From 3 meetings: 1 win for AD Ceuta FC, 2 wins for Sporting Gijón and 0 draws, with the goals at 2–4.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 1–1 score estimate, roughly 2 goals in all, and 1–1 (12.4%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
What stands out is that the table favours the Sporting Gijón, whereas the betting market leans slightly towards the home side. When the indicators disagree like this, the match is difficult to read, and a more careful bet is the sensible choice.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.73), and we rate it at 55%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 55% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 50% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 3; AD Ceuta FC 1 win, 0 draws, Sporting Gijón 2 wins.
- An average of 2.0 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: AD Ceuta FC 10–25, Sporting Gijón 11–13.
- Expected: roughly 2 goals; over 2.5 goals: 50%.
- Out: AD Ceuta FC 0, Sporting Gijón 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 55%, best price 1.73). With roughly 2 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for AD Ceuta FC: no absences. Absent for Sporting Gijón: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijón: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.42 | 3.55 | 3.00 |
| Market average | 2.35 | 3.36 | 2.88 |
| Lowest odds | 2.25 | 3.20 | 2.73 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 1.28 | 73.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.99 | 1.90 | 49.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.96 | 1.89 | 50.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.40 | 3.21 | 29.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.68 | 55.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.15 | 2.07 | 44.8% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 1/11/26, 12:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 7.2%.
At a glance
- Likely result: AD Ceuta FC 1–1 Sporting Gijón, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: AD Ceuta FC 22nd (5 points), Sporting Gijón 6th (22 points).
- Form in the competition: AD Ceuta FC 1W 2D 8L (10:25), Sporting Gijón 6W 1D 4L (11:13).
- H2H: 3 matches: AD Ceuta FC 1W 0D 2L, goals 2–4.
- Absences: AD Ceuta FC 0, Sporting Gijón 0.
Who will win AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijón?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijón: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijón: team news and absences
AD Ceuta FC
- No reported absences
Sporting Gijón
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Castellón | 12 | 8-3-1 | 23:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Almería | 12 | 8-2-2 | 23:10 | 26 |
| 3 |  Eibar | 12 | 7-2-3 | 21:14 | 23 |
| 4 |  Granada CF | 12 | 7-2-3 | 20:14 | 23 |
| 5 |  Mallorca | 12 | 6-4-2 | 15:7 | 22 |
| 6 | Sporting Gijón | 12 | 7-1-4 | 13:13 | 22 |
| 7 |  Girona | 12 | 6-3-3 | 22:11 | 21 |
| 8 |  Burgos | 12 | 6-3-3 | 17:13 | 21 |
| 9 |  Oviedo | 12 | 5-3-4 | 17:15 | 18 |
| 10 |  Sabadell | 12 | 4-5-3 | 12:11 | 17 |
| 11 |  Las Palmas | 12 | 5-2-5 | 17:21 | 17 |
| 12 |  Córdoba | 12 | 5-1-6 | 19:22 | 16 |
| 13 |  Valladolid | 12 | 4-3-5 | 20:19 | 15 |
| 14 |  Tenerife | 11 | 3-5-3 | 13:15 | 14 |
| 15 |  Eldense | 12 | 4-2-6 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 16 |  Celta de Vigo II | 12 | 3-4-5 | 18:23 | 13 |
| 17 |  Leganés | 12 | 3-3-6 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 18 |  Real Sociedad II | 12 | 3-2-7 | 15:22 | 11 |
| 19 |  Cádiz | 12 | 2-4-6 | 15:16 | 10 |
| 20 |  FC Andorra | 11 | 3-1-7 | 15:20 | 10 |
| 21 |  Albacete | 12 | 2-1-9 | 10:23 | 7 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 12 | 1-2-9 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
AD Ceuta FC
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
AD Ceuta FCLLLLDSporting GijónWLWWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijón?
Under 2.5 goals (1.96); AD Ceuta FC or draw (1X) (1.44).
Who will win AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijón?
We estimate: AD Ceuta FC win 40%, draw 28%, Sporting Gijón win 32%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 1 November 2026, kick-off: 15:15, venue: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta. Referee: Ojaos Valera, Alejandro.
Who will be missing?
AD Ceuta FC: no absences. Sporting Gijón: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 50% (odds 1.99); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 50% (odds 1.96).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 55% (odds 1.73).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (12.4%), then 1–0 (9.9%) and 0–1 (8.8%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.