Andorra vs Gibraltar: prediction, tip and odds, 13 November 2026, UEFA Nations League

Andorra vs Gibraltar betting prediction

Can Andorra turn their home ground into points, or will Gibraltar keep doing what they have done so far and come away with another result they can live with? The UEFA Nations League meeting on 13 November 2026 at 19:45 is a question of whether the home side's reputation survives its own record. We think it does not, at least not at 1.92.

How Andorra have fared in this tournament

Andorra have collected a single point from three matches in this competition, with one draw and two defeats along with one goal scored against three conceded. That works out to 0.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, leaving them third in the table. Their lone home fixture ended 1-2 against Malta, so the home goals figure of 1:2 rests on a very thin sample.

Looking beyond this competition, the form is no better. Andorra picked up just one point from their last three games, netting once while conceding three times. Their own ground saw a 1-2 defeat to Malta on 24 September 2026, followed by a goalless draw at Gibraltar on 27 September, and then a 1-0 loss away in Malta on 4 October.

Gibraltar: draws that keep them ahead

Gibraltar have not lost a match in this competition and have taken two draws so far, scoring once and conceding once. Their record sits them second on 2 points, while their away form in the table reads one draw from a single fixture. It is not a dominant profile, but it is the sort of consistency that keeps a team competitive.

Across all competitions, their two most recent fixtures ended level: a goalless stalemate at home against Andorra on 27 September, followed by a 1-1 away result at Malta on 1 October. Neither of those outings produced a winner. Such a run suggests a side that is difficult to break down, and for anyone weighing the match result, that same pattern is why the draw deserves a closer look.

The last four meetings favour the visitors

The head-to-head points most clearly in one direction. Across the previous four encounters, Gibraltar picked up two wins and two draws, while Andorra secured no victories. Goals across those four games sit at 0:2, so margins have stayed tight, with both of Gibraltar's wins coming by one goal.

Gibraltar won 1-0 on 4 September 2024 and 1-0 on 19 November 2022. The other two meetings were 0-0 draws: the 2021 game and the most recent one, on 27 September 2026. Andorra have not won any of them, and that is the number we keep coming back to.

No absences, and what the lines say

Neither squad has any absences reported. That takes one unknown off the table for this preview, but it says nothing about recent form on either side.

Bookmakers see Andorra as the most probable winners, at 59% with the best available odds of 1.92. A draw is priced at 31% (best odds 3.15), and a Gibraltar victory at 19% (best odds 5.50). The most likely exact scorelines are 1-0 at 18.7%, 0-0 at 15.0% and 1-1 at 12.2%. Expected goals sit near 1 for each side, so roughly two in total. On the Asian handicap, Gibraltar +1 is priced at 67% with best odds of 1.45, while Andorra -1 stands at 33% with best odds of 2.98. Keep in mind that the margin built into the match result market comes to 7.8%, which matters when you compare prices.

Draw or Gibraltar at 1.66

We are backing Draw or Gibraltar (X2) at 1.66, which carries a 59% implied chance. Our view runs against the hosts, since the price on Andorra looks too generous for what they have shown. Bookmakers place their trust in the home ground, but the form and head-to-head record do not give us the same confidence.

• Gibraltar have gone unbeaten in their last two outings, making them a tough side to beat when they travel.
• Andorra have gone three matches without a win, and that is the stat we would give the most weight.
• In their last four head-to-head clashes, Gibraltar have claimed a pair of victories, whereas Andorra have not managed a single win.
• At best odds of 1.66, the market implies a 59% probability, and on this evidence we consider that a figure worth backing.

Across the most probable outcomes, our primary selection comes through on 0-0, 1-1 and a 0-1 Gibraltar victory, but falls short on 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1. Put simply, any Andorra success is the result that undoes it. The market's single most likely score is 1-0 to Andorra, so this is far from a banker. Even so, it is the wager we would place.

Another tip: Over 1.5 goals

Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.78 is the second selection, and the market puts its likelihood at 54%. Beyond that number, our case is not especially strong, so we see it as the safer option of the two. It cashes on 1-1, 2-0 and 2-1, but falls on 1-0, 0-0 and 0-1. Because a 1-1 result lands both selections, they complement each other, though they also rely on the same winning scenario.

Other bets worth a look

We would consider three or four alternatives, all priced at the odds given:

• Gibraltar +1 in the Asian handicap, priced at 1.45. With the +1 line, the wager pays out unless Gibraltar lose by two or more goals, while a one-goal loss gives the stake back. This is our top pick, since it aligns with the main tip and casts a wider net.
• Under 2.5 goals at odds 1.35, with a chance of 71%. The line sits near two goals overall, so this is a low-value price that we would only add to a slip in a small stake.
• Both teams not to score at odds 1.44, with a 65% chance. Gibraltar have averaged just 0.5 goals per match in this competition, so the no option looks sound, especially alongside the draw.

Where we land before the whistle

Andorra play on home soil, yet the market clearly has faith in them. Their form tells a different story: three matches without a victory, while Gibraltar have gone two games unbeaten. Our preferred selection is Draw or Gibraltar at 1.66, which offers the strongest upside. Over 1.5 goals at 1.78 is the backup option, and Gibraltar +1 at 1.45 suits anyone wanting extra protection.