Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Bulgaria vs Iceland (UEFA Nations League, 13 November 2026, 19:45): Iceland -0.25 (Asian handicap) at odds of 1.53. Second tip: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.82. The bookmakers' odds give Bulgaria 20%, the draw 26% and Iceland 54%. The most likely score is 0–1.
Wins: Iceland win. Half lost (half the stake back): a draw. Loses: Iceland lose.
Bulgaria vs Iceland betting prediction
Iceland are our pick in Bulgaria's home match against them in the UEFA Nations League, Matchweek 5, kick-off 19:45 on 13 November 2026. Our main tip is Iceland -0.25 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.65 (chance 59%). We would rather take the handicap than the straight win, because the bookmakers already give Iceland 51% to win the match outright and the handicap lets us keep a bit more of the value.
At a glance
- Likely result: Bulgaria 0–1 Iceland, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Bulgaria 3rd (4 points), Iceland 1st (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Bulgaria 1W 1D 2L (3:5), Iceland 2W 2D 0L (7:1).
- H2H: 1 match: Bulgaria 0W 0D 1L, goals 0–3.
- Absences: Bulgaria 0, Iceland 0.
Iceland's record in this competition
In this competition, Iceland have played four, won two, drawn two and lost none. They have scored 7 and conceded 1, and sit top of the table on 8 points. Bulgaria are third on 4 points, with one win, one draw and two defeats, and a goal record of 3:5. Those figures belong to this competition only.
Across all competitions the picture is similar. Bulgaria won 1, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last four matches. Iceland won 2, drew 2 and lost none of theirs. Iceland's away form in this competition is one win and one draw from two games, with no defeat, and that is the part of the record we find most convincing.
Who will win Bulgaria vs Iceland?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Goals scored, goals conceded and the market's total
Iceland average 1.8 goals scored and 0.3 conceded per match in this competition. Bulgaria average 0.8 scored and 1.3 conceded. That is a wide gap in both directions, and it is the main reason we trust the Iceland side of this match more than the Bulgarian one.
The market expects about three goals in total, with Iceland around 2 and Bulgaria around 1. The most likely exact scores are 0-1 at 12.7%, 1-1 at 12.1% and 0-2 at 9.9%.
One meeting, and it went Iceland's way
The only recent head-to-head meeting is Iceland's 3-0 win over Bulgaria on 3 October 2026. One game is a thin basis for any conclusion, and we would not build a case on it alone. Still, it is hard to ignore a clean three-goal margin, and it sits comfortably with the form figures.
No absences on either side
No absences were reported for Bulgaria or for Iceland. We have nothing to adjust for, so the team news does not change our view. The form, the table and the market are the figures that matter here.
Bulgaria vs Iceland: team news and absences
Bulgaria
- No reported absences
Iceland
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
BulgariaWLDLIcelandDWWDIceland -0.25, and why the split stake makes sense
Our main tip is Iceland -0.25 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.65 (chance 59%). The stake is split: half on Iceland -0.5 and half on Iceland +0. At -0.5, Iceland must win by 1 or more. At +0, an Iceland win wins, a draw returns the stake and a defeat loses. On the likeliest scores, the tip wins at 0-1, 1-2 and 0-2, returns half the stake at 1-1 and 0-0, and loses at 1-0.
We like it for four reasons:
- Iceland have 8 points in this competition, against 4 for Bulgaria.
- Iceland have lost none of their last 4 matches.
- Bulgaria have won only 1 of their last 4 matches.
- The market gives this handicap a 59% chance at best odds of 1.65.
We would not back a plain Iceland win at these prices and hope for the best. The split keeps us in the game on the 0-0 and 1-1 scores that would lose a straight win bet.
Standings and form
League C – Group D
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iceland | 4 | 2-2-0 | 7:1 | 8 |
| 2 |  Estonia | 4 | 1-3-0 | 2:1 | 6 |
| 3 | Bulgaria | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:5 | 4 |
| 4 |  Luxembourg | 4 | 1-0-3 | 2:7 | 3 |
Recent matches
Bulgaria
Home and away
Bulgaria vs Iceland: last matches of both teams
Bulgaria
Iceland
Another tip: Under 2.5 goals
Our second tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds 1.78 (chance 55%). Bulgaria have had more than 2.5 goals in only 2 of their last 4 matches, and kept a clean sheet in 2 of them. Iceland have had more than 2.5 goals in only 2 of their last 4 and kept a clean sheet in 3 of the same 4. The bookmakers give it 55%, and we think the defensive numbers back that up. On the likeliest scores, Under 2.5 wins at 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 0-0 and 1-0, and loses only at 1-2.
If you want something else on the match, Draw or Iceland (X2) at odds 1.24 (chance 78%) is the safest price on the list, though the return is small. Iceland +0.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.23 (chance 77%) wins unless Iceland lose by 1 or more, which is a reasonable way to back them without needing a win. Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.27 (chance 75%) fits the expected total of about three. The bookmaker margin on the match result is 7.2%, so none of these prices are generous, and we would keep the stakes modest.
Bulgaria vs Iceland: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 5.00 | 3.75 | 1.80 |
| Market average | 4.75 | 3.61 | 1.75 |
| Lowest odds | 4.37 | 3.38 | 1.65 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.34 | 1.32 | 70.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.12 | 2.03 | 46.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.82 | 1.78 | 53.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.77 | 3.56 | 26.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.91 | 1.90 | 48.7% |
| BTTS – no | 1.83 | 1.81 | 51.3% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 13/11/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.2%.
Bulgaria vs Iceland: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Why the handicap comes first
Iceland have the better record in this competition, the better goal figures and the stronger recent results, and the bookmakers agree with us on the direction. What we are less sure of is the margin, so the handicap is where we want our money. The goals angle through Under 2.5 is the same view told another way: if Iceland control the match and keep their clean sheets, both tips can land together.
Head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Match events
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Bulgaria vs Iceland?
Iceland -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.53); Under 2.5 goals (1.82).
Who will win Bulgaria vs Iceland?
We estimate: Bulgaria win 20%, draw 26%, Iceland win 54%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 13 November 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Hristo Botev Stadium, Plovdiv. Referee: Florian Badstübner.
Who will be missing?
Bulgaria: no absences. Iceland: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 47% (odds 2.12); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 53% (odds 1.82).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 49% (odds 1.91).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 0–1 as most likely (13.1%), then 1–1 (11.8%) and 0–2 (10.5%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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