Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Covadonga v Valladolid: 29 October 2026 · 19:00 at Estadio El Bayu (Pola de Siero). We have Valladolid (78%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Covadonga vs Valladolid: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Head to head. From 1 meetings: 0 wins for Covadonga, 1 win for Valladolid and 0 draws, with the goals at 0–1.
What to expect
For us, Valladolid are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–3 score, roughly 4 goals in all, with 0–2 (12.6%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
Odds of 1.22 on the result do not offer much, so it is worth turning to the goals markets: Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.50), which we rate at 63%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 45% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 63% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 1; Covadonga 0 wins, 0 draws, Valladolid 1 win.
- An average of 1.0 goals per meeting between these teams.
- Expected: roughly 4 goals; over 2.5 goals: 63%.
- Out: Covadonga 0, Valladolid 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals (probability 57%, best price 1.63). With roughly 4 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Covadonga: no absences. Absent for Valladolid: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Covadonga vs Valladolid: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 14.25 | 7.00 | 1.22 |
| Market average | 12.73 | 6.29 | 1.20 |
| Lowest odds | 10.75 | 5.80 | 1.17 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 1.12 | 82.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 1.46 | 62.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | 2.48 | 37.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.25 | 2.18 | 42.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.20 | 2.05 | 45.2% |
| BTTS – no | 1.73 | 1.69 | 54.8% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 29/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 7.4%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Covadonga 0–2 Valladolid, roughly 4 goals in total.
- H2H: 1 match: Covadonga 0W 0D 1L, goals 0–1.
- Absences: Covadonga 0, Valladolid 0.
Who will win Covadonga vs Valladolid?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Covadonga vs Valladolid: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Covadonga vs Valladolid: team news and absences
Covadonga
- No reported absences
Valladolid
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Covadonga vs Valladolid?
Covadonga +2 (Asian handicap) (1.80); Over 2.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win Covadonga vs Valladolid?
We estimate: Covadonga win 7%, draw 15%, Valladolid win 78%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 29 October 2026, kick-off: 19:00, venue: Estadio El Bayu, Pola de Siero.
Who will be missing?
Covadonga: no absences. Valladolid: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 63% (odds 1.50); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 37% (odds 2.63).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 45% (odds 2.20).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 0–2 as most likely (12.6%), then 0–3 (10.7%) and 0–1 (9.9%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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