Denmark vs Norway: prediction, tip and odds, 17 November 2026, UEFA Nations League

Denmark vs Norway betting prediction

Denmark welcome Norway on 17 November 2026 at 19:45 for Matchweek 6 of the UEFA Nations League. The hosts are second in the table, Norway fourth, and only three points separate them. Bookmakers view the contest as nearly even: Denmark 38%, draw 23%, Norway 38%. For us, the more telling question is not who takes the win but how each side plans to reach it.

Where the table puts them

Denmark have collected 6 points from 4 games in this competition, winning 2 and losing 2, with goals 7:7. Norway sit on 3 points from the same number of matches, with 1 win, 3 defeats and goals 6:8. These numbers reflect this competition alone, so they tell us nothing about either side's cup or European form. Within the group, they offer the more reliable snapshot of where each team stands.

Denmark average 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match here. Norway average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded. Of the two sides, Norway's defence is the one to watch first, since it concedes more than Denmark does.

Recent form in all competitions

Widen the lens to every competition over the latest four games and the picture shifts a little. Denmark took two wins from that stretch, scoring 7 and conceding 7: they beat Wales 2-0 at home, went down 2-4 at home to Portugal, edged Wales 1-0 on the road, and fell 3-2 in Norway on 24 September 2026. Norway's only success came in that 3-2 victory over Denmark, after which they dropped a 1-2 home game to Portugal, a 2-1 away game at Wales and a 2-1 away game at Portugal. Norway's six goals and eight conceded over that run do not look like a side that has been in control.

Both teams have been involved in plenty of goals recently. Denmark have seen both sides score in 2 of their 4 matches, and Norway have seen both score in all 4. We do not read much more into that than the scoring pattern itself.

Meetings with a split result

The pair have traded wins in their two most recent meetings. Denmark won 3-1 on 8 June 2024, and Norway took a 3-2 victory in Norway on 24 September 2026. That leaves Denmark with one win and Norway with one, and the goals are split 5:4. Two games prove little, but they do suggest neither side has a firm hold on this fixture.

Team news with no absences

No known absences on either side, which suggests both squads should be close to full strength. With no injury factor to work with, we won't invent one. The call comes down to recent form, league position and goal data, and that is where we like to base a pick anyway.

What the bookmakers expect

The top exact-score picks are 1-1 at 10.4%, 1-2 at 8.3% and 2-1 at 8.3%. Meanwhile, the best prices on Denmark and Norway to win both stand at 2.39, with the draw at 3.92. The bookmakers' margin on the match result comes to 9.2%, a useful reminder that these odds are not generous. We simply read these figures as the market's take on the game and present them that way.

Denmark or draw

Our top pick is Denmark or draw (1X) at odds 1.71, which the bookmakers' odds put at a 57% chance. Because the price is so short, treat this as a cautious selection rather than one to press hard; a modest stake suits it best. Even so, we favour it over backing either team to win outright, since Norway's recent form and away record give us little reason to back them to win outright.

Here is why we like this selection:

• Denmark have won 2 of their last 4 matches.
• Norway have won only 1 of their last 4 matches.
• Denmark have won 1 home match in this competition.
• The market gives the 1X a chance of 57%.

The primary pick pays out with 1-1, 2-1, 2-2 or 1-0, but falls short on 1-2 and 0-1. A draw is good news for us, while a two-goal Norway victory is not, and that shows you the nature of this wager.

Over 2.5 goals as the second tip

The second selection here is Over 2.5 goals at odds 1.45, which implies a 63% probability based on the bookmakers' prices. Norway have cleared 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 games, while Denmark have managed it in 2 of their last 4. With an expected total of about 4 goals, the over looks like a reasoned choice rather than wishful thinking. Still, we would keep the stake modest, since a projected total of about 4 goals sits above the line, but a single goalless half could decide the outcome.

The second tip pays out with a 1-2, 2-1 or 2-2 scoreline, but goes down on 1-1, 0-1 and 1-0.

The scorelines that split the tips

The 1-1 is the tricky result. At 10.4% it is the single most probable exact score, yet it lands our main tip while costing us the second. Meanwhile, 1-2 cuts the other way: it wins the over but loses the 1X, while 2-1 wins both tips. We think spreading the stake over both tips is the prudent approach to this fixture, and we would keep it from going any heavier.

Other markets, left alone

Beyond the two tips already set out, we see no further selections worth backing here. Bookmakers price the over 3.5 goals at 41% likelihood, with the top available price at 2.25, and they also make both teams to find the net at 65% with the best odds at 1.42. We treat these numbers only as the prevailing market opinion, not as our own endorsement, and we prefer to commit our stake to the pair of recommendations we have already made.

Where we land on this one

Denmark have the better standing and the better recent results, and at home they have a record to work from. Norway have scored and conceded at a rate that keeps the second tip alive, but their away form gives us little confidence in them winning here. We back Denmark or draw, and we back the over, knowing that 1-1 will hurt one of them.