Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for North Macedonia vs Slovenia (UEFA Nations League, 16 November 2026, 19:45): North Macedonia +1.25 (Asian handicap) at odds of 1.52. Second tip: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.65. The bookmakers' odds give North Macedonia 18%, the draw 26% and Slovenia 56%. The most likely score is 0–1.
Wins: North Macedonia win, a draw. Half wins (half the stake back): North Macedonia lose by 1. Loses: North Macedonia lose by 2 or more.
North Macedonia vs Slovenia betting prediction
North Macedonia host Slovenia on 16 November 2026 at 19:45 in the UEFA Nations League, Matchweek 6. The home side have not picked up a point yet in this competition, and the visitors arrive second in the table. We think that gap tells the story, though the price on Slovenia leaves little room for error.
At a glance
- Likely result: North Macedonia 0–1 Slovenia, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: North Macedonia 4th (0 points), Slovenia 2nd (7 points).
- Form in the competition: North Macedonia 0W 0D 4L (0:10), Slovenia 2W 1D 1L (5:3).
- H2H: 4 matches: North Macedonia 1W 2D 1L, goals 4–5.
- Absences: North Macedonia 0, Slovenia 0.
A home side still waiting for a point
North Macedonia sit fourth in the UEFA Nations League table with 0 points from four games, all of them lost. They have scored no goals and conceded 10, which is the number that worries us most. At home in this competition they have lost both matches and conceded 5, and they have scored 0 at home too.
Their last four matches, across all competitions, make for grim reading. They lost 3-0 to Switzerland at home, 2-0 away at Slovenia, 2-0 at home to Scotland and 3-0 away at Switzerland. Those four defeats came with 0 goals scored.
Who will win North Macedonia vs Slovenia?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
North Macedonia vs Slovenia: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 5.81 | 3.70 | 1.72 |
| Market average | 5.24 | 3.52 | 1.66 |
| Lowest odds | 4.73 | 3.24 | 1.60 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.41 | 1.40 | 66.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 2.28 | 41.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 1.62 | 58.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.60 | 4.38 | 21.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.20 | 2.16 | 42.9% |
| BTTS – no | 1.65 | 1.63 | 57.1% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 13/11/26, 16:11. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 7.7%.
Slovenia's away record and recent results
Slovenia are second with 7 points from four matches, with two wins, one draw and one defeat. They have scored 5 and conceded 3, which works out at 1.3 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match in this competition. Away from home they have won once and lost once, from two trips, with 3 goals scored and 3 conceded.
The last four matches of Slovenia, across all competitions, are more mixed. They drew 0-0 at home to Scotland, beat North Macedonia 2-0 at home, lost 2-1 away at Switzerland and then won 2-1 away at Scotland. That is two wins, one draw and one defeat, so the picture is sound without being spectacular.
Meetings and the team news
The last four meetings between the two sides produced one win for North Macedonia, two draws and one win for Slovenia, with 4 goals for the home side and 5 for the visitors. The most recent was Slovenia's 2-0 win in this fixture, and that result fits the current form. The older draws, 1-1 in 2021 and 1-1 in 2019, show that this fixture has not always been one-sided.
No absences have been reported for either side, so we have no injury or suspension news to weigh up. The picture comes down to form, table position and the price.
North Macedonia vs Slovenia: team news and absences
North Macedonia
- No reported absences
Slovenia
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
North MacedoniaLLLLSloveniaWLWDWhy we are on Slovenia at 1.50
The bookmakers rate Slovenia at 62% with the best odds at 1.50. North Macedonia are at 15% with the best odds at 6.33, and the draw at 24% with the best odds at 3.86. The bookmaker margin on the match result is 8.4%, so the odds are not generous. We would not call 1.50 a bargain, but Slovenia are the side with the better results, and we would rather back that than chase the longer price on the home side.
Our main tip is Slovenia to win at odds 1.50, and the bookmakers give them a 62% chance. The bet wins on 0-1, 0-2, 1-2 and 0-3, and loses on 1-1 and 0-0. Here is why we like it:
- Slovenia have won 2 of their last 4 matches.
- Slovenia have lost only 1 of their last 4 matches.
- North Macedonia have won none of their last 4 matches.
- Slovenia sit second in the table with 7 points, North Macedonia fourth with 0.
North Macedonia vs Slovenia: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
Standings and form
League B – Group A
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Switzerland | 4 | 4-0-0 | 11:1 | 12 |
| 2 | Slovenia | 4 | 2-1-1 | 5:3 | 7 |
| 3 |  Scotland | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:5 | 4 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 4 | 0-0-4 | 0:10 | 0 |
Recent matches
North Macedonia
Home and away
A second bet on the goals
Our second tip is that both teams do not score, at odds 1.55, which the bookmakers rate at 59%. The case starts with North Macedonia, who have kept no clean sheets in their last four matches and have not scored in any of them. Slovenia have kept two clean sheets in the same run and failed to score in one match. A team that has not found the net in four games is a fair reason to think the home side will not score in this one.
The bet wins on 0-1, 0-2, 0-0 and 0-3, and loses on 1-1 and 1-2. It fits with our main tip, because a Slovenia win without a home goal is exactly the scenario we expect most.
- Both teams to score: no, at odds 1.55 (59%).
We think Slovenia are the right side here, and the second tip is the more comfortable way to back the same story. The main tip is the bet we would stake on first. Kick-off is 16 November 2026 at 19:45.
North Macedonia vs Slovenia: last matches of both teams
North Macedonia
Slovenia
Head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Match events
Questions and answers
What do we tip for North Macedonia vs Slovenia?
North Macedonia +1.25 (Asian handicap) (1.52); Under 2.5 goals (1.65).
Who will win North Macedonia vs Slovenia?
We estimate: North Macedonia win 18%, draw 26%, Slovenia win 56%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 16 November 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: to be confirmed.
Who will be missing?
North Macedonia: no absences. Slovenia: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 41% (odds 2.35); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 59% (odds 1.65).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 43% (odds 2.20).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 0–1 as most likely (15.5%), then 0–2 (12.0%) and 1–1 (11.7%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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