Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Germany vs Netherlands (UEFA Nations League, 16 November 2026, 19:45): Germany to win at odds of 1.90. Second tip: Both teams to score at odds of 1.53. The bookmakers' odds give Germany 51%, the draw 24% and Netherlands 25%. The most likely score is 1–1.
Germany vs Netherlands betting prediction
Germany welcome the Netherlands on 16 November 2026 at 19:45 in the UEFA Nations League, and our pick is a Germany win at odds of 1.80, a 51% chance according to the bookmakers. We do not expect a rout. We back the hosts because the evidence that matters to us points their way, and the price, though short, still looks fair to us.
At a glance
- Likely result: Germany 1–1 Netherlands, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Germany 3rd (5 points), Netherlands 1st (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Germany 1W 2D 1L (3:2), Netherlands 2W 2D 0L (7:5).
- H2H: 10 matches: Germany 4W 4D 2L, goals 16–17.
- Absences: Germany 0, Netherlands 0.
Two sides in very different form lines
Looking only at this competition, the Dutch lead the table on 8 points from four games, with two wins, two draws and no losses. Germany sit third on 5 points, built from one win, two draws and a single defeat. Across all competitions, though, the gap narrows. In their most recent four outings, Germany collected a win, two draws and a loss, and that loss was a 0-1 reverse at home against Greece. Over the same span, Holland picked up two wins and two draws without tasting defeat. The Netherlands come in on the steadier form.
Standings and form
League A – Group B
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Netherlands | 4 | 2-2-0 | 7:5 | 8 |
| 2 |  Greece | 4 | 2-2-0 | 5:3 | 8 |
| 3 |  Germany | 4 | 1-2-1 | 3:2 | 5 |
| 4 |  Serbia | 4 | 0-0-4 | 3:8 | 0 |
Recent matches
Germany
Home and away
Germany vs Netherlands: last matches of both teams
Germany
Netherlands
Goals scored and conceded tell the Dutch story
The Netherlands are scoring 1.8 goals a game in this tournament, while Germany manage 0.8. The Dutch also leak more, conceding 1.3 a match against Germany's 0.5. At home, Germany have won once and lost once, scoring two and conceding one. That's a tiny sample, and we wouldn't draw firm conclusions from it, but it hardly points to a team that routinely cruises through home matches.
Who will win Germany vs Netherlands?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Head to head
All matchesTen meetings, a narrow edge to Germany
In the last ten meetings, Germany have taken four wins, the Dutch two, and four have ended level. Germany have scored 16 goals and the Netherlands 17, so scoring is nearly even. The head-to-head is far from one-sided, yet it leans toward the home team on the measure we weigh most heavily when picking a winner. Their latest encounter ended 1-1 in the Netherlands on 24 September 2026, a result that underlines how narrow the gap really is.
Germany vs Netherlands: team news and absences
Germany
- No reported absences
Netherlands
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
GermanyDWLDNetherlandsWDWDNo fitness doubts on either side
Neither Germany nor the Netherlands has reported any injuries or suspensions.
Our case for Germany at 1.80
Germany to win is our top pick at 1.80, with the implied probability sitting at 51%. Bookmakers build in an 8.5% margin on the 1X2 market, which leaves little value in the price. Even so, we believe the hosts hold enough advantages to justify backing them.
- Germany lost only 1 of their last 4 matches, so they have been hard to beat in all competitions recently.
- On their own ground in this competition, Germany have recorded 1 win, 0 draws and 1 defeat, a productive return at home.
- Germany have won 4 of the last 10 meetings with the Netherlands, who have won only 2.
- Germany is priced at a 51% probability by the bookmakers, with the best available odds sitting at 1.80, and that is a number we are comfortable backing.
Our primary pick comes good with a 2-1, 1-0 or 2-0 home victory. It falls short on a 1-1 draw, a 1-2 away win or a 2-2 draw. Among the exact scorelines the market rates most probable are 1-1 at 9.7%, 2-1 at 9.5% and 1-0 at 7.2%, which makes the 1-1 stalemate the outcome most likely to damage our position.
Under 3.5 goals as the second tip at 1.56
Our second pick is under 3.5 goals at 1.56, a price the bookmakers imply at 59%. We see it as a partner to the home win, not as a standalone selection. Germany have stayed at or below 2.5 goals in each of their last four games, and two of those four ended without a goal conceded, so the case for this bet holds up well. The Netherlands push the other way: they have passed 2.5 goals in three of their last four outings. This selection cashes on 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0 and 1-2, and the only result that sinks it is a 2-2 draw. Bookmakers project roughly three goals overall, with Germany scoring 2 and the Netherlands 1.
Germany vs Netherlands: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.90 | 4.09 | 3.90 |
| Market average | 1.84 | 3.87 | 3.71 |
| Lowest odds | 1.77 | 3.48 | 3.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 1.13 | 81.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 1.50 | 61.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.55 | 2.44 | 38.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.41 | 2.30 | 41.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.53 | 1.50 | 62.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.55 | 2.46 | 37.9% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 13/11/26, 16:11. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 7.4%.
Germany vs Netherlands: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
Where the card leaves us
Our main tip is Germany to win at 1.80, with the under 3.5 goals priced at 1.56 as a second selection. The case for the home side rests on their form at home, a 4-2 advantage in victories across the previous ten head-to-head clashes. The goals selection is built on Germany keeping clean sheets and on the scarcity of high-scoring games in their last four outings. No further selections appear here, since none on our shortlist fit this fixture.
Returns calculator
Match events
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Germany vs Netherlands?
Germany to win (1.90); Both teams to score (1.53).
Who will win Germany vs Netherlands?
We estimate: Germany win 51%, draw 24%, Netherlands win 25%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 16 November 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: to be confirmed.
Who will be missing?
Germany: no absences. Netherlands: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 62% (odds 1.53); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 38% (odds 2.55).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 62% (odds 1.53).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.1%), then 2–1 (9.6%) and 1–0 (7.7%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.