Greece vs Serbia: prediction, tip and odds, 16 November 2026, UEFA Nations League

Greece vs Serbia betting prediction

Greece welcome Serbia for their UEFA Nations League Matchweek 6 fixture on 16 November 2026, with the whistle at 19:45, and we lean towards the home side to take the points. Not every figure on this page works in Greece's favour, yet the overall picture is clear enough for us to back the favourite.

Greece's form and home record

Greece occupy second place in the UEFA Nations League standings after four games, collecting 8 points from two victories and two draws without losing once. Their attack has produced 5 goals and their defence has let in 3, equal to 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Their weakest area is their home form: no wins, two draws and no defeats, with a goal tally of 2:2. It is hardly a profile of total control, yet an unbeaten run is still a solid return.

Over their latest four fixtures, across all competitions, the side picked up two wins and two draws. The 2-2 stalemate against the Netherlands and the goalless stalemate with Germany both took place at home, while the two victories came on the road, against Serbia and Germany. Both teams scored in two of those four outings, and Greece preserved a zero on the scoreboard in two.

Serbia still waiting for a point

Serbia sit fourth in the standings with no points from four matches, all of them losses. Their totals are 3 scored and 8 conceded, which works out to 0.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded each game. On the road they have dropped both fixtures, with the scoreline across those two reading 1:4.

Serbia have lost each of their last four matches across all competitions, managing 3 goals while letting in 8. Both sides found the net in 3 of those games, and the total went beyond 2.5 goals in 3 as well. In one match they came up empty, and they also went without a clean sheet. Our standings and season numbers are limited to this tournament alone, so the wider all-competition sequence paints a somewhat broader picture, yet it fits the same overall trend.

One meeting and no absences

Only one earlier clash exists for reference, Serbia 1-2 Greece on 24/9/26, so it cannot carry much weight. Greece took the points, and the head-to-head reads 2:1 in goals for Greece, with Serbia claiming nothing. Thin evidence, yet it leans in the same direction as the rest of the data.

No absences have been reported for either side, so the result will likely come down to current form and how each team performs on matchday.

Why we are on Greece at 1.75

Greece are our pick at 1.75, a price that implies roughly a 56% probability from the bookmakers. It is a short number and we make no claim otherwise, yet the evidence on this page backs the favourite. These are the points that convince us:

• Greece have collected 8 points so far, whereas Serbia are still on zero.
• Greece have won 2 of their last 4 matches in all competitions.
• Serbia have gone 4 matches in all competitions without a win.
• Greece took the sole earlier head-to-head clash between the two teams.

Here is how our main pick plays out: it cashes on 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1, but goes down on 1-1. The draw is the genuine danger, and the 19% implied by the odds is the figure worth watching. We don't believe it is large enough to shift our outlook.

Under 3.5 as the second angle

Under 3.5 goals is our second selection, priced at 1.45, an implied probability of 63%. In Greece's last four games, they went over 2.5 goals just twice, and they also recorded a clean sheet in two of those four. We put more weight on that defensive pattern than on the scoring numbers. At this price the value is modest, so we would back it only as a supporting pick.

Across 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 1-1 and 3-0 this selection cashes, and only a 3-1 scoreline sinks it. Greece taking that precise margin is the single result that brings it down, while every other probable outcome works in our favour.

What the market expects

These figures describe what the bookmakers expect. They are not tips from us, and we are not recommending any bet beyond the two above.

• Over 2.5 goals: 59% chance, best odds 1.54; under 2.5: 41%, best odds 2.26.
• Over 3.5 goals: 37% chance, best odds 2.47.
• Both teams to score: yes at 51% (best odds 1.79), no at 49% (best odds 1.87).

Greece is projected to score about 2 goals and Serbia about 1, giving a combined total near 3. The most probable exact scorelines are 2-0 at 11.4%, 1-0 at 10.1% and 2-1 at 9.7%. Bookmaker pricing carries an 8.3% overround on the 1X2 market, which means the implied probabilities are somewhat inflated, yet the overall lean is still clear.

Greece to win, with the under as a side bet

Our lean is Greece at 1.75, with under 3.5 goals at 1.45 as a supporting selection, provided that price holds when you check. Greece sit higher in the table, arrive with the stronger recent form, and hold the only meeting result between the two. Serbia are still waiting for a win in this competition. Draws at home are a warning sign, but they don't alter the outlook.