Hungary vs Northern Ireland: prediction, tip and odds, 17 November 2026, UEFA Nations League

Hungary vs Northern Ireland betting prediction

Hungary have the chance to convert their home crowd into a win against Northern Ireland, who lead the group with 8 points. Hungary sit second with 7, so only one point separates the sides, and the outcome depends on whether the hosts can defeat a team that has yet to lose in this competition. Kick-off is on 17 November 2026 at 19:45, during Matchweek 6 of the UEFA Nations League.

Two tables, two different stories

The standings are based solely on results from this tournament. Hungary have collected 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 4 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 2. Their home form is where things falter: 1 win, 0 draws and 1 defeat, with home goals ending 1:1. That does not suggest a team that has dominated on its own ground, and we would not expect the home crowd alone to decide this one.

Northern Ireland have collected 2 wins and 2 draws without a single defeat, scoring 4:0 in goals. Away from home they are unbeaten in the group, with 2 wins and a 4:0 goal tally. They have averaged 1.0 goals per match in this stretch while conceding none, a tighter back line than Hungary's 0.5 goals conceded per match. Judged on this competition's figures, Northern Ireland come across as the steadier of the two.

What the last four matches show

These are all competitions, so they do not line up with the table above. Hungary's last four produced 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 3 goals scored and 2 conceded. Their only setback came on 25/9/26, when they fell 0-1 at home to Ukraine. Hungary then played out a 0-0 draw on the road against Northern Ireland on 28/9/26, beat Georgia 1-0 at home on 2/10/26, and won 2-1 away at Ukraine on 5/10/26. We like that recovery after the Ukraine defeat more than anything else in their run.

Across their most recent four matches, Northern Ireland collected 2 wins and 2 draws, scoring 4 goals while conceding none. The run opened with a 1-0 away win at Georgia on 25/9/26, followed by a home 0-0 draw with Hungary on 28/9/26. They then won 3-0 away at Ukraine on 2/10/26 and finished with a home 0-0 draw against Georgia on 5/10/26. No defeat appears in that sequence, and the clean sheets are the more telling feature of the form, more so than the scorelines themselves.

The last two meetings

Only a handful of meetings have taken place, yet they still tell us something. Hungary took one of the last pair of encounters, while the other finished goalless in Northern Ireland on 28/9/26. Neither of those matches went Northern Ireland's way. Back on 29/3/22, Hungary edged a 1-0 success, so they have previously beaten this side. A sample this small cannot prove a pattern, and we would not rely on it by itself, but every piece points the same way.

No absentees on either side

Hungary and Northern Ireland have no absentees reported. With no absences on either side, the outcome will hinge on recent results and the underlying statistics rather than on any last-minute lineup change.

What the bookmakers expect

Hungary are the market's favourites with a 50% implied chance, and their best price is 1.83. A draw is priced at 27% (best odds 3.38), while a Northern Ireland win sits at 22% (best odds 4.11). Across the three outcomes the overround comes to 8.6%, so the lines leave little room for value and comparing prices between bookmakers is worthwhile. On goals, the market gives Over 2.5 a 40% chance and Under 2.5 a 60% chance, while Both teams to score is at 44% for yes and 56% for no. We treat these numbers as the bookmakers' own view and use them as a benchmark against our analysis.

Hungary to win is our main tip

Hungary to win is our top pick at 1.83, and the implied probability sits at 50%. For a home team with the stronger head-to-head record that has also avoided heavy defeats in the group, we see that price as reasonable. We would not go looking for a longer number on Northern Ireland: bookmakers already rate them as the underdog, and nothing in their form figures gives us a reason to disagree. Our reasons:

• Hungary won 2 of their last 4 matches.
• Hungary lost only 1 of their last 4 matches.
• At home Hungary have 1 win, 0 draws and 1 defeat in this competition.
• Hungary have taken one of their last two head-to-head clashes, whereas Northern Ireland have failed to claim either.

The bet cashes on 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1, and it fails on 1-1, 0-0 and 0-1. A stalemate is the outcome that stings most for us. With the market giving it 27%, we're reminded that Northern Ireland are tough to beat, and either a 1-1 or a 0-0 would leave us empty-handed. Even so, we believe Hungary's advantage is sufficient.

Why we like the goals line

Our number-two pick is Under 2.5 goals at 1.52 odds, which the bookmakers put at a 60% chance. In Hungary's last 4 games, only 1 went over 2.5 goals, and Northern Ireland managed the same in just 1 of theirs. Northern Ireland have also held a clean sheet across all 4 of their recent outings, and projections point to roughly 2 goals in total. These are the points that do the heavy lifting in this case.

The bet cashes on 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 2-0 and 0-1, and falls only if the match ends 2-1. That 2-1 result is the single probable scoreline capable of sinking it, so the odds carry genuine risk. Even so, the leading exact outcomes are 1-0 at 14.8%, 1-1 at 12.5% and 0-0 at 10.5%, and all three of those would land this wager.

No third bet on this card

Our card for this match ends with the two tips already listed. We would rather stop there than fill it out with prices we don't trust.

Verdict: home edge, low stakes on the goals

Our pick is a Hungary home win, with Under 2.5 goals as the second selection. Hungary hold the stronger head-to-head record, while Northern Ireland have proved hard to beat without ever seeming likely to find the net in quantity. Size your stake modestly, since only a single point divides the two teams and a draw would damage the main tip.