Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Netherlands vs Greece (UEFA Nations League, 13 November 2026, 19:45): Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.53. Second tip: Netherlands to win at odds of 1.57. The bookmakers' odds give Netherlands 62%, the draw 21% and Greece 17%. The most likely score is 2–1.
Netherlands vs Greece betting prediction
The Netherlands host Greece on 13 November 2026 at 19:45 in the UEFA Nations League, Matchweek 5. The two sides sit first and second in this competition, separated by nothing but the order of the table, and both are unbeaten so far. That makes the result harder to call than the standings suggest, and we have a clear view on where the value sits.
At a glance
- Likely result: Netherlands 2–1 Greece, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Netherlands 1st (8 points), Greece 2nd (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Netherlands 2W 2D 0L (7:5), Greece 2W 2D 0L (5:3).
- H2H: 3 matches: Netherlands 2W 1D 0L, goals 6–2.
- Absences: Netherlands 0, Greece 0.
Level on points at the top of the group
In this competition the Dutch lead with 8 points from 4 matches, two wins and two draws, and goals 7:5. Greece are on the same 8 points, with two wins and two draws, and goals 5:3. Both goal differences are the same, so the one-place gap is decided by the order of the table, not by anything in the numbers. Netherlands have collected their points at home with one win and one draw, goals 3:2. Greece have been better on the road, with two wins from two away games and goals 3:1.
Who will win Netherlands vs Greece?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Recent form: scoring Dutch against careful Greeks
Across all competitions, the Netherlands' last four matches brought two wins and two draws, with goals 7:5. The 1-1 at home to Germany was the result that did not quite fit, while the 2-1 win in Serbia and the 2-1 at home to Serbia showed a side that keeps finding the net. The 2-2 in Greece is the other draw in that run.
Greece's last four matches in all competitions also read two wins and two draws, with goals 5:3. Their wins came 2-1 in Serbia and 1-0 in Germany, and both of their home results were goalless or level in nature: a 0-0 with Germany and the 2-2 with the Netherlands. They have not conceded in half of their last four, which is the kind of record that makes us slow to back a heavy home win.
Standings and form
League A – Group B
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Netherlands | 4 | 2-2-0 | 7:5 | 8 |
| 2 |  Greece | 4 | 2-2-0 | 5:3 | 8 |
| 3 |  Germany | 4 | 1-2-1 | 3:2 | 5 |
| 4 |  Serbia | 4 | 0-0-4 | 3:8 | 0 |
Recent matches
Netherlands
Home and away
Netherlands vs Greece: last matches of both teams
Netherlands
Greece
Head-to-head favours the Dutch
The last three meetings belong to the Netherlands, who won two, drew one and lost none, with goals 6:2. The most recent of them ended 2-2 in Greece. Before that the Netherlands won 1-0 in Greece and beat them 3-0 at home. Greece have not won any of those three games, and that record weighs on our thinking about the result.
Head to head
All matchesNo absences to worry about
No absences have been reported for either side, so both coaches can pick from their strongest options. That is good news for anyone trying to read the form at face value, because we do not have to guess who will be missing from the line-ups.
Netherlands vs Greece: team news and absences
Netherlands
- No reported absences
Greece
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
NetherlandsWDWDGreeceDDWWWhat the bookmakers expect
The bookmakers make the Netherlands clear favourites, at 63% to win with the best odds at 1.53. A draw is at 21% (best odds 4.71) and a Greece win at 16% (best odds 6.37). The margin on the match result is 6.7%. The expected score has the Netherlands at about 2 and Greece at about 1, so about 3 goals in total, and the most likely exact scores are 2-0, 1-0 and 2-1.
The goals market is where the numbers get interesting. Over 2.5 goals is rated at 60% with best odds of 1.64, while Over 1.5 goals is at 80% (best odds 1.20) and Over 3.5 goals at 38% (best odds 2.52). Both teams to score is at 55% with best odds of 1.71. On the handicap side, Netherlands -0.5 is at 64% (best odds 1.52) and Greece +0.5 at 36% (best odds 2.65).
Netherlands vs Greece: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.57 | 4.78 | 5.73 |
| Market average | 1.54 | 4.57 | 5.46 |
| Lowest odds | 1.50 | 4.32 | 5.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 1.13 | 82.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 1.49 | 63.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.77 | 2.55 | 36.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.35 | 2.25 | 42.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.58 | 1.56 | 59.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.40 | 2.29 | 40.5% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 13/11/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.5%.
Netherlands vs Greece: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Best bet for Netherlands vs Greece: Over 2.5 goals
Our main tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds 1.64 (chance 60%). We think the goals are the better angle here, and the reasons are straightforward.
- The Netherlands had more than 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches in all competitions.
- Greece had more than 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4 matches in all competitions.
- The bookmakers expect about 3 goals in total in this match.
- The market gives the over 60% at best odds of 1.64.
The bet wins on 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1, and loses on 2-0, 1-0 and 1-1. A scoreline like 2-0 or 1-0 would be enough to lose it, so this is a bet that needs at least three goals to land. We think the Netherlands' scoring habits make that a sensible wager.
Another tip: Netherlands to win
Our second tip is Netherlands to win at odds 1.53 (chance 63%). We would not stake heavily on it, but we like the Dutch to take the points. They have won 2 of their last 4 and lost none of them, and they are level with Greece on 8 points while holding the top spot. At home they have one win and one draw without defeat, and they won 2 of the last 3 meetings while Greece won none. The bet wins on 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1, and loses only on a 1-1 draw.
Other prices worth a look
If you want to spread the risk without going against either tip, a few of the other lines fit this match. Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.20, with a chance of 80%, is a short price that sits comfortably beside our main pick. Netherlands -0.5 at odds 1.52, with a chance of 64%, wins only if the Dutch win by one goal or more, which suits anyone who likes the home side. Both teams to score at odds 1.71, with a chance of 55%, is the choice for those who expect Greece to find the net at least once.
Our verdict on the goals and the result
We would back the goals first and the Netherlands second, and we would not touch a Greece win on the market's numbers at 6.37. Greece are a side that keeps things tidy and wins away, but the Dutch have scored in most of their recent matches and have the better head-to-head record. We expect the home side to score more often than they concede, and we think the three-goal line is the one to watch.
Returns calculator
Match events
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Netherlands vs Greece?
Over 2.5 goals (1.53); Netherlands to win (1.57).
Who will win Netherlands vs Greece?
We estimate: Netherlands win 62%, draw 21%, Greece win 17%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 13 November 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam. Referee: Rohit Saggi.
Who will be missing?
Netherlands: no absences. Greece: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 63% (odds 1.53); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 37% (odds 2.77).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 59% (odds 1.58).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (9.9%), then 1–1 (9.2%) and 2–0 (9.0%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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