Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Poland vs Sweden (UEFA Nations League, 17 November 2026, 19:45): Poland +0 (Asian handicap) at odds of 1.81. Second tip: Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.50. The bookmakers' odds give Poland 40%, the draw 27% and Sweden 33%. The most likely score is 1–1.
Wins: Poland win. Stake back: a draw. Loses: Poland lose.
Poland vs Sweden betting prediction
Sweden visit Poland for Matchweek 6 of the UEFA Nations League, and the whistle goes at 19:45 on 17 November 2026. The standings have the travelling side leading on ten points, while the hosts sit third with four, but the odds still make Poland the marginally likelier winner. We see that mismatch as the market rewarding home advantage, and it influences how we would approach this bet.
At a glance
- Likely result: Poland 1–1 Sweden, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Poland 3rd (4 points), Sweden 1st (10 points).
- Form in the competition: Poland 1W 1D 2L (7:4), Sweden 3W 1D 0L (7:3).
- H2H: 4 matches: Poland 1W 0D 3L, goals 7–9.
- Absences: Poland 0, Sweden 0.
Poland's home record against Sweden's away numbers
Poland's Nations League campaign so far has yielded 4 points from 4 games: 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 7 goals scored and 4 conceded. Their home record carries more of the weight, producing 1 win and 1 draw without a single loss, plus a 6:0 scoreline. That 6:0 win over Romania is the figure that keeps us taking them seriously on home soil.
Sweden have not lost a game in this competition, collecting 3 wins and 1 draw while scoring 7 and conceding 3, which works out to 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match. On the road, their record reads 1 win and 1 draw without a single defeat, with 2:1 as the aggregate score in those fixtures. The numbers are not spectacular, yet they are tidy, and that steadiness is why we rate the visitors as a serious option.
Who will win Poland vs Sweden?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Attack against defence, and the form behind them
Both sides have scored 1.8 goals per match in this competition, so the attacking output looks similar on paper. The difference is at the back: Poland have conceded 1.0 per match here, Sweden 0.8. That gap is small, but it is the kind of gap that decides a tight one.
Poland's recent run features a 6-0 win over Romania at home, a 0-0 draw with Bosnia & Herzegovina at home, a 3-1 defeat on the road to Sweden, and a 1-0 loss in Bosnia & Herzegovina. Sweden, by contrast, beat Romania 2-1 at home, beat Poland 3-1 at home, drew 1-1 in Bosnia & Herzegovina, and secured a 1-0 win in Romania. Poland's travel record is their clear concern, while Sweden's results on the road are their biggest asset.
Standings and form
League B – Group D
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sweden | 4 | 3-1-0 | 7:3 | 10 |
| 2 |  Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4 | 2-2-0 | 6:3 | 8 |
| 3 |  Poland | 4 | 1-1-2 | 7:4 | 4 |
| 4 |  Romania | 4 | 0-0-4 | 3:13 | 0 |
Recent matches
Poland
Home and away
Poland vs Sweden: last matches of both teams
Poland
Sweden
Head-to-head leans towards the visitors
Over the last four head-to-head meetings, Poland took one win and Sweden three, with a 7:9 goal count in total. Sweden's 3-1 victory over Poland is the latest of these, a scoreline that also shows up in both teams' recent results. Before it came Sweden 3-2 Poland, Poland 2-0 Sweden and Sweden 3-2 Poland. Judged by that record, the visitors hold the edge in the rivalry, and the current prices do not fully reflect it.
Neither squad has any reported absences, which means no team news is available to shift the outlook ahead of kick-off.
Head to head
All matchesPoland vs Sweden: team news and absences
Poland
- No reported absences
Sweden
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Poland or draw
Bookmakers put Poland at 40% to win (best odds 2.28), the draw at 24% (best odds 3.74) and Sweden at 35% (best odds 2.59). The margin built into the 1X2 market sits at 9.2%. Here the odds favour Poland, whereas the league table points to Sweden, so we follow the market.
Poland or draw (1X) is our top selection here, priced at 1.81 with an estimated 55% chance. At these odds, backing Sweden to win outright holds no appeal for us.
- Poland at home have 1 win and 1 draw in this competition.
- Odds makers put Poland-or-draw at a 55% chance.
- The top available price is 1.81, a tight figure for an outcome of this kind.
Our primary pick comes good with a 1-1, 2-1, 1-0 or 2-2 scoreline, but falls short on 1-2 or 0-1.
Our both teams to score pick is priced at 1.52, with a 60% chance. Both sides found the net in 3 of Sweden's last 4 games, and Sweden didn't go a single one of them without scoring. An expected total near 3 goals fits this price. Victory comes on 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 and 2-2, while 1-0 and 0-1 would lose.
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
PolandLWLDSwedenWDWWThe goals market, for context only
Beyond these two selections, we have nothing else worth backing, so they carry the whole card. The percentages that follow reflect the bookmakers' own expectations and should not be read as tips from us.
- Over 2.5 goals: chance 57%, best odds 1.60; under 2.5: chance 43%, best odds 2.14.
- Over 3.5 goals: chance 35%, best odds 2.63; under 3.5: chance 55%, best odds 1.40.
- Most likely exact scores: 1-1 (11.2%), 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%).
Poland vs Sweden: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.45 | 3.68 | 2.90 |
| Market average | 2.32 | 3.49 | 2.79 |
| Lowest odds | 2.17 | 3.21 | 2.62 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 1.19 | 78.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.72 | 1.65 | 57.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 2.20 | 42.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.65 | 2.55 | 36.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.55 | 1.53 | 60.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.55 | 2.38 | 39.1% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 13/11/26, 20:14. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 7.8%.
Poland vs Sweden: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
Most likely score: 1-1
Poland's projected goal tally sits at 2 against Sweden's 1, while the single most probable correct score is 1-1 at 11.2%. That exact result would land both of our selections, so we lean toward the home team or a draw as our headline pick, and back both sides finding the net as the backup.
Returns calculator
Match events
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Poland vs Sweden?
Poland +0 (Asian handicap) (1.81); Under 3.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win Poland vs Sweden?
We estimate: Poland win 40%, draw 27%, Sweden win 33%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 17 November 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: to be confirmed.
Who will be missing?
Poland: no absences. Sweden: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 57% (odds 1.72); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 43% (odds 2.25).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 61% (odds 1.55).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.4%), then 2–1 (8.8%) and 1–0 (8.1%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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