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Copa del Rey · round 128 · 27 October 2026 · 20:00

Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano: prediction, tip and odds, 27 October 2026, Copa del Rey

Recreativo Huelva
2–3
1Recreativo Huelva7.00
XDraw4.70
2Rayo Vallecano1.49

Best price · Updated 27/10/26, 18:00

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Played: final score 2–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.

Recreativo Huelva play Rayo Vallecano at home on 27 October 2026 · 20:00 at Nuevo Colombino (Huelva). For us, Rayo Vallecano (64%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.

Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano: tip and prediction
Handicap
Recreativo Huelva +1.5 (Asian handicap)
1.70
Goals
Under 3.5 goals
1.50
Combo
Rayo Vallecano + over 2.5 goals combined
2.36
42% · fair odds for the combo
57%Chance
0–2likely score
≈ 3 goalstotal in the match
Safer option: Draw or Rayo Vallecano (X2): 85% probability, best odds 1.12.

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Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano: analysis of the match

What our tip is based on

    What to expect

    For us, Rayo Vallecano are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 0–2 (11.0%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.

    In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.50), and we rate it at 64%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 52% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 57% chance.

    Prediction summary

    1. Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 57%.
    2. Out: Recreativo Huelva 0, Rayo Vallecano 0.

    Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals

    Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals (probability 57%, best price 1.65). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.

    Absences

    Absent for Recreativo Huelva: no absences. Absent for Rayo Vallecano: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.

    Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano: compare the odds

    Match result1X2
    Best price7.004.701.49
    Market average6.384.381.43
    Lowest odds5.423.931.40
    GoalsBestAverageChance
    Over 1.5 goals1.221.1877.7%
    Over 2.5 goals1.651.6357.1%
    Under 2.5 goals2.252.1742.9%
    Over 3.5 goals2.632.5336.4%
    BTTS – yes1.801.7951.9%
    BTTS – no2.001.9348.1%

    Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 27/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 8.5%.

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    At a glance

    • Likely result: Recreativo Huelva 0–2 Rayo Vallecano, roughly 3 goals in total.
    • Absences: Recreativo Huelva 0, Rayo Vallecano 0.

    Who will win Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano?

    Recreativo Huelva15%
    Draw21%
    Rayo Vallecano64%

    Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.

    Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano: more betting tips

    Draw or Rayo Vallecano (X2)85.5% · fair odds 1.17 · best 1.12
    Likely
    Over 1.5 goals77.7% · fair odds 1.29 · best 1.22
    Likely
    Rayo Vallecano to win64.4% · fair odds 1.55 · best 1.49
    Likely
    Under 3.5 goals63.6% · fair odds 1.57 · best 1.50
    Likely
    Over 2.5 goals57.1% · fair odds 1.75 · best 1.65
    Possible
    BTTS – yes51.9% · fair odds 1.93 · best 1.80
    Possible
    BTTS – no48.1% · fair odds 2.08 · best 2.00
    Outsider
    Under 2.5 goals42.9% · fair odds 2.33 · best 2.25
    Outsider
    Over 3.5 goals36.4% · fair odds 2.75 · best 2.63
    Outsider
    Draw21.1% · fair odds 4.75 · best 4.70
    Outsider
    Recreativo Huelva to win14.5% · fair odds 6.88 · best 7.00
    Outsider

    Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.

    Tips on corners and cards

    Cornersline 10.5 corners
    Over 1.88 · Under 1.83
    probability of over 49.2%

    Correct score prediction

    0 : 211.0%
    0 : 110.7%
    1 : 29.9%
    1 : 19.7%
    0 : 37.5%
    1 : 36.8%

    Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano: team news and absences

    Recreativo Huelva

    • No reported absences

    Rayo Vallecano

    • No reported absences

    Changes are possible before kick-off.

    Returns calculator

    Potential return0 £
    Net profit0 £
    Implied probability0%
    Market margin8.5%

    Questions and answers

    What do we tip for Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano?

    Recreativo Huelva +1.5 (Asian handicap) (1.70); Under 3.5 goals (1.50).

    Who will win Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano?

    We estimate: Recreativo Huelva win 15%, draw 21%, Rayo Vallecano win 64%.

    Where and when is the game being played?

    Date: 27 October 2026, kick-off: 20:00, venue: Nuevo Colombino, Huelva.

    Who will be missing?

    Recreativo Huelva: no absences. Rayo Vallecano: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.

    Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?

    We estimate over 2.5 goals at 57% (odds 1.65); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 43% (odds 2.25).

    Will both teams score?

    By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 52% (odds 1.80).

    Which correct score is the likeliest?

    We rate 0–2 as most likely (11.0%), then 0–1 (10.7%) and 1–2 (9.9%).

    What are your predictions based on?

    We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.

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