Serbia vs Germany: prediction, tip and odds, 13 November 2026, UEFA Nations League

Serbia vs Germany betting prediction

Serbia against Germany in the UEFA Nations League kicks off on 13 November 2026 at 19:45, and the numbers point in one direction. The bookmakers expect Germany to score about 3 goals and Serbia about 1. The most likely exact scores are 0-2 at 10.2%, 1-2 at 9.2% and 0-3 at 8.8%. Two of those three give Germany a clear margin, and that shapes how we would bet this one.

Attack against defence: where the goals come from

Serbia have scored 0.8 goals per match in this competition and conceded 2.0. Germany have also scored 0.8, but they have conceded only 0.5. That gap is the story. Serbia's problem is not that they cannot find the net, it is that they give up chances at the other end, and Germany are the side most likely to punish them for it.

Germany's record is built on not conceding. In this competition they have five points more than Serbia from the same number of games, and they have kept their away form tidy. We would not expect Serbia's attack to trouble them much.

Form guide: four defeats and a stubborn German side

Serbia's last four matches in all competitions are all defeats, with three goals scored and eight conceded. Those four games came against Greece, the Netherlands twice and Germany, and the two home losses are the ones that hurt most. Serbia have looked short of answers, and we see no sign in the numbers that they are about to find them.

Germany's last four are more mixed: one win, two draws and one defeat, with three goals scored and two conceded. The draw in Greece and the draw in the Netherlands show a side that is hard to break down. The one defeat, a 0-1 home loss to Greece, is the result we would hold against them, but it is not the form of a team in trouble. Remember that these form figures cover all competitions, while the table only counts this competition.

Head-to-head: a 2-0 win that colours the picture

The last three meetings split one win each and a draw, with Serbia taking one and Germany one, and the goals are 2:3 in Germany's favour. The most recent meeting, Germany 2-0 Serbia on 1 October, is the one we would weigh most heavily. We do not read too much into the older games, especially the 1-1 draw in 2019, but the pattern is consistent with Germany being the better side here.

Absences: nothing reported on either side

No absences have been reported for either team, so we are not adjusting our view for injuries or suspensions. The team news is clean, and the match will be decided on the form and the matchups we have already described. That is probably the most useful thing we can say about the build-up.

Our main tip and how it settles

Our main tip is Germany -1.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.82 (chance 54%). At -1.5 Germany must win by two or more goals, so a narrow away win is not enough for us to be paid. We like the price more than the margin, but we think the two teams' recent results justify backing a comfortable Germany win.

• Germany lost only 1 of their last 4 matches in all competitions.
• Serbia have won none of their last 4 matches.
• Germany sit third in this competition with 5 points, while Serbia are fourth with none.
• The market gives this handicap a 54% chance at best odds of 1.82.

The settlement is simple. The main tip wins on 0-2, 0-3 and 1-3, and loses on 1-2, 0-1 and 1-1. The result we fear most is a narrow Germany win, because it returns nothing. A 1-0 Germany win does not appear in our settlement list as a winner, so we are treating a single-goal Germany margin as a loss for this bet.

Second tip: when Serbia still find the net

Our second tip is both teams to score at odds 1.75 (chance 54%). We are less confident in this one than in the main tip, but there is a solid base. Both teams scored in three of Serbia's last four matches, and Serbia failed to score in only one of those games. Serbia are not a side who go quiet for long, and that gives the yes side a real chance.

The settlement is where the risk sits. Both teams to score wins on 1-2, 1-3 and 1-1, and loses on 0-2, 0-3 and 0-1. A Germany win without a Serbia goal, such as 0-2 or 0-3, loses. We would stake less on this than on the handicap, but we would not talk ourselves out of it.

Other bets worth a look on the night

If you want a smaller margin on Germany, Germany -0.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.27 is the option we would pick from this list. At -0.5 Germany must win by one or more, so any Germany win pays, and the bookmakers give that a 75% chance. The return is small, but it fits a team that has lost once in four.

• Germany to win at odds 1.30 (chance 74%), the plainest route to the same view.
• Germany -0.75 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.32 (chance 72%): half the stake on Germany -1, half on Germany -0.5.
• Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.83 (chance 53%), if you think Germany will be disciplined rather than expansive.

Our pick for the scoreline

Our most likely score is 0-2 to Germany. It is the most probable exact result at 10.2%, it wins our main tip, and it fits what we see in Serbia's defensive numbers and Germany's ability to win without conceding. It also loses the second tip, which is the trade-off we have accepted in building this card.