Slovenia vs Switzerland: prediction, tip and odds, 13 November 2026, UEFA Nations League

Slovenia vs Switzerland betting prediction

Slovenia welcome Switzerland in Matchweek 5 of the UEFA Nations League on 13 November 2026, kick-off 19:45, and the expected goals are where the story lies. Our model puts Switzerland at around 2 and Slovenia at around 1, so roughly 3 goals overall. Among the scorelines, 0-1 comes up at 13.5%, 1-1 at 11.5% and 0-2 at 11.2%. In this competition Switzerland have scored 2.8 goals a game on average, while Slovenia have managed 1.3. These numbers shape our view and lean towards Switzerland, yet they leave the goals market far from a straightforward pick.

Slovenia's defence against Switzerland's attack

Switzerland have scored 11 goals in four matches here and conceded one. Slovenia have scored 5 and conceded 3, which is less dominant but still a sound return for a side second in the table. At home they have one win, one draw and no defeats, scoring 2 and conceding none. That home record is the best argument for Slovenia, and we would not dismiss it.

The hosts' main difficulty is that Switzerland's attack has looked the stronger side of their game. Slovenia have let in 0.8 goals a game so far, which is a reasonable figure, yet Switzerland have conceded only 0.3 over the same four matches. We expect the outcome to hinge on whether Slovenia can stop Switzerland from taking an early lead, rather than on the total number of goals scored.

Form in all competitions and what it tells us

Across their most recent four fixtures in every competition, Slovenia recorded a draw, a defeat and two victories, netting five times while letting in three. Two of those games were played at home: a goalless draw with Scotland on 26/9/26 and a 2-0 win over North Macedonia on 29/9/26.
Both of their away results came in the following week, with a 2-1 defeat at Switzerland on 3/10/26 being the only loss, and a 1-2 victory in Scotland on 6/10/26 closing the run.

Switzerland have won each of their last four outings across every competition, scoring 11 times and conceding just once, among them a 3-0 victory in Scotland and a 3-0 home win over North Macedonia. The standings, however, reflect only this tournament, where Switzerland sit top on 12 points from four games. Those two sets of numbers tell the same story, so there is no genuine conflict between them.

The last three meetings favour Switzerland

Switzerland have taken two wins from their last three head-to-head clashes, and the third ended 0-0 on 13/10/25. Slovenia have failed to claim a victory in any of them. Switzerland ran out 2-1 winners on 3/10/26, and before that they beat Slovenia 3-0 on 8/9/25. Over those three games Switzerland found the net 5 times to Slovenia's 1, so the visitors are the more logical side to back.

No absences on either side

Neither side has any reported absences, so the assessment rests on both squads as they are likely to be selected. With no injury developments altering the outlook, recent form and previous meetings are what drive the reading, and both point in the same direction.

Best bet for Slovenia vs Switzerland: Under 2.5 goals

Our top pick is Under 2.5 goals at 1.51 odds, which implies a bookmaker probability of 64%. We rate it as a modest lean, not a confident call, so it deserves a smaller stake. We favour it over the match result since it does not depend on Switzerland winning; it simply needs the game to end with two goals or fewer across the scorelines we consider most likely.

Here is why we like this pick:

• Only 2 of Slovenia's last 4 matches have produced more than 2.5 goals.
• Slovenia came away without conceding in two of their previous four outings.
• Switzerland have shut out their opponents in three of their last four outings.
• A bookmaker's implied probability for the under sits at 64%, based on the best available odds of 1.51.

The bet wins on 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 0-0 and 1-0, and loses on 1-2. The 1-2 is the scoreline that worries us most, because it is the one where Switzerland get their win and Slovenia still find a goal. We think the under is the better way into this match, though only just.

Another tip: Switzerland to win

Switzerland at 1.72 is our second selection, implying a 57% chance from the bookmaker. They are unbeaten in this competition with four wins from four, and across all tournaments they have not lost any of their last four games. At the top of the standings they sit on 12 points, with Slovenia in second on 7. On the road they have won both of their away matches, and they have claimed two of the last three head-to-head meetings, while Slovenia have won none.

This selection cashes on 0-1, 0-2 and 1-2, but falls short on 1-1, 0-0 and 1-0. Should Slovenia edge it 1-0 at home, the ticket is gone, so a smaller unit suits this one. Still, the odds are worth grabbing, since recent results and the head-to-head record lean in the same direction.

Alternatives worth a look

• Backing Switzerland at Asian handicap +0 gives odds of 1.24, which implies a bookmaker probability of 77%. If Switzerland win, the bet pays out; if the match ends level, the stake comes back; only a loss for Switzerland costs you the stake. This is a careful way to bet on the favourite.
• Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, which gives the bookmaker a 74% chance. It complements our primary pick and demands less from the game.
• Slovenia +1.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.45, a bookmaker chance of 67%. The stake only loses if Slovenia are beaten by two goals or more, which appeals to anyone who expects the home side to keep the margin narrow.

A simpler slip usually beats a crowded one here. Taking the under and a Switzerland win works against each other in 0-0, 1-0 and 1-1 outcomes, so choose a single primary selection and only layer on a handicap if you are looking for extra exposure.

Most likely score: 0-1

The most likely exact score is 0-1 at 13.5%, a Switzerland win by a single goal. It wins both our under tip and our Switzerland tip on paper, and it is the scoreline we would expect if the visitors get their attack going without giving Slovenia much room. Bet within your means.