Ukraine vs Georgia: prediction, tip and odds, 17 November 2026, UEFA Nations League

Ukraine vs Georgia betting prediction

Ukraine welcome Georgia on 17 November 2026, kick-off 19:45, in Round 6 of the UEFA Nations League. Ukraine sit third on 4 points and Georgia are fourth on 2, so the two are separated by only a single place. The margin is slim, yet neither side has managed to collect many victories so far, which gives this fixture real weight for both. Keep in mind that the standings reflect only this competition, so bear that in mind when you look at the figures below.

Can Ukraine turn their home record around?

Ukraine sit on 4 points from 4 games, built on 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 2 goals scored and 5 conceded. Their home form is the real concern: no victories at home in this competition, and a 1:5 goal count from two losses on their own ground. Looking at every competition, their latest four results were a 1-0 win away in Hungary, a 0-0 draw in Georgia, followed by home losses to Northern Ireland (0-3) and Hungary (1-2).

Their forwards have been struggling to find the net. Ukraine went without a goal in half of those four matches, while the two sides found the back of the net together in just one. Even so, they kept a clean sheet twice, so the defence has been more solid than the results alone would suggest.

Georgia's problem is getting the ball in the net

In this competition Georgia are still searching for a win, with two draws and two defeats so far, and they have conceded twice while scoring none. Their away numbers read one draw and one defeat, again without a goal. Across their last four outings in every competition, two ended level, two ended in defeat, and the net was never found. That is the figure we find hardest to look past. Solid defending can keep a team in a game, but without scoring, a side has no realistic route to victory.

Two of those matches ended with them holding a clean sheet, and the goalless home stalemate against Ukraine on 28 September 2026 is probably the result they feel best about. Resilient, without question. Threatening in front of goal, though, not really.

Recent head-to-head and the latest squad updates

Ukraine hold the edge over the head-to-head record. Across their three most recent clashes, Ukraine claimed a single win and shared two draws, while Georgia failed to win any. Those matches yielded just 3 goals in total. Latest of all came a goalless draw in Georgia on 28 September 2026, preceded by a 1-1 draw in Georgia on 16 November 2024 and a 1-0 Ukraine victory on 11 October 2024.

Neither club has listed any absentees, so the analysis is based on the full squads available. There is no injury angle worth building a case around.

What the prices say before a ball is kicked

Ukraine are priced to win at 38 per cent (best odds 2.39), the draw sits at 26 per cent (best odds 3.49), and Georgia's chance of victory is put at 35 per cent (best odds 2.58). With those three outcomes so tightly bunched, this is nearly an even split between all of them, and the bookmakers' overround on match-result betting comes to 9.3 per cent.

Over 1.5 goals sits at 74% (best odds 1.23), while over 2.5 goals is 50% (best odds 1.91) and under 2.5 is also 50% (best odds 1.89). Over 3.5 goals drops to 27%. On BTTS, yes comes in at 71% (best odds 1.36) and no at 46% (best odds 2.01). Among exact scores, 1-1 leads at 12.4%, followed by 1-0 at 9.5% and 0-1 at 9.2%. Keep in mind that these figures reflect what bookmakers are pricing in, not our own assessment.

Another tip: Ukraine or draw

Our top pick is Ukraine or draw (1X) at odds 1.89, chance 52%. Rather than guessing an outright winner, we prefer to back the points the home team can collect. Ukraine hold the stronger league total and the superior head-to-head record, while Georgia have struggled to convert their draws into wins.

• Georgia have won 0 of their last 4 matches in all competitions.
• Georgia sit fourth on 2 points, one place and two points behind Ukraine, who occupy third spot on 4.
• Ukraine have won 1 of the last 3 meetings, Georgia none.
• Bookmakers price this tip at a 52% probability, with the top available odds sitting at 1.89.

This one lands on 1-1, 1-0, 2-1 and 0-0, and fails on 0-1 and 1-2. Only a Georgia victory sinks it. We would not present it as a value pick. We simply back this side of the market over the other.

Second option: both sides find the net, priced at 1.36

Our second pick is both teams to score, priced at 1.36 with a 71% chance. The reasoning leans on an expected total near 3 goals, and the bookmaker odds sit at 1.36, which implies 71%. This selection is less certain than the lead tip, so only stake an amount you could lose without regret.

The bet lands on 1-1, 2-1 and 1-2, but falls short on 1-0, 0-1 and 0-0. Put simply, it depends on a game with goals at both ends, and Georgia's recent run without a goal is the very thing that casts doubt on that.

Are there other bets worth a look?

There are no additional selections from us for this fixture. Totals markets have been set, and the numbers shown earlier reflect the lines the bookmakers chose, yet our analysis does not support taking either the over or the under. We would rather pass than back a price we cannot defend.

Where we come down

Ukraine look like the stronger team for this one, and both the head-to-head record and the league standings back that view. Our safer selection is the 1X, which covers a draw as well as a home win, since Georgia have proven capable of holding a match level. Should Ukraine score early, the main pick looks comfortable. If the early breakthrough does not come, however, their home form remains the open question.