Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Wales vs Portugal (UEFA Nations League, 17 November 2026, 19:45): Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.61. Second tip: Portugal to win at odds of 1.36. The bookmakers' odds give Wales 12%, the draw 18% and Portugal 70%. The most likely score is 0–2.
Wales vs Portugal betting prediction
Wales host Portugal on 17 November 2026, kick-off 19:45, in the UEFA Nations League, Matchweek 6, and the numbers point one way. The bookmakers' expected goals are 1 for Wales and 2 for Portugal, roughly 3 in total, and the most likely exact score is 0-2 at 10.4%. That is a match that looks settled on paper before a ball is kicked, and we think the favourite deserves a look.
At a glance
- Likely result: Wales 0–2 Portugal, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Wales 3rd (3 points), Portugal 1st (12 points).
- Form in the competition: Wales 1W 0D 3L (2:5), Portugal 4W 0D 0L (9:4).
- H2H: 2 matches: Wales 0W 0D 2L, goals 0–3.
- Absences: Wales 0, Portugal 0.
Wales keep scoring too little
In this competition Wales have won one of four matches, lost three, and scored only two goals while conceding five. At home the record is one win and one defeat, with two scored and two conceded. Across the season they average 0.5 goals scored per match and 1.3 conceded, and that imbalance is the first thing we look at.
Their recent results in all competitions tell the same story. Wales lost 1-0 away to Portugal and 2-0 away to Denmark, then beat Norway 2-1 at home before losing 1-0 at home to Denmark. Across those four matches they have scored twice in total, and in three of them they failed to score at all. The defence has not been much better, and the attack has not been able to hide that.
Wales vs Portugal: last matches of both teams
Wales
Portugal
Head to head
All matchesPortugal's away form does the heavy lifting
Portugal have won all four of their matches in this competition, scoring nine and conceding four. They have averaged 2.3 goals per match and conceded 1.0 per match this season. The away record is the one we keep returning to: two wins from two, six goals scored and three conceded on the road.
Their last four matches in all competitions are four wins, with nine goals scored and four conceded. Three of those games finished with both teams scoring, and three of them had more than 2.5 goals. Portugal have not been held back by a bad run, and the margin between the two sides in this competition is wide.
Standings and form
League A – Group D
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 4 | 4-0-0 | 9:4 | 12 |
| 2 |  Denmark | 4 | 2-0-2 | 7:7 | 6 |
| 3 | Wales | 4 | 1-0-3 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 4 |  Norway | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:8 | 3 |
Recent matches
Wales
Home and away
Head to head and the team news
The two teams have met twice, and Portugal have won both. The 1-0 win on 24 September is the most recent, and the earlier 2-0 win came on 6 July 2016. Wales have not scored in either meeting, and that is the detail we find hardest to ignore when we weigh up this fixture.
No absences are reported for either side, so we expect both teams to be close to full strength. There is no injury story to explain away a poor result, which means the match will come down to the form and the quality on show.
Wales vs Portugal: team news and absences
Wales
- No reported absences
Portugal
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
WalesLWLLPortugalWWWWAnother tip: Portugal to win
Our main tip is Portugal to win at odds 1.61 (chance 60%). Those odds leave little room for profit, and we are not claiming value here. We simply think a side with this run of results and this away record is the right call at the price, and the bookmakers' margin on the match result of 8.3% does not change that view.
Here is why we like it:
- Portugal have won all four of their last four matches, while Wales have won only one.
- Portugal have lost none of their last four matches, and they sit first in the table with 12 points.
- Wales are third with 3 points from their four matches in this competition.
- Portugal have won both of their away matches in this competition.
The table and the season figures cover this competition only, so the picture here is of the Nations League, not of the wider fixture list. Portugal's wins over Norway and Denmark in their recent games support the same conclusion, even though those results come from other fixtures.
Who will win Wales vs Portugal?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Wales vs Portugal: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 8.75 | 5.60 | 1.36 |
| Market average | 7.99 | 5.16 | 1.33 |
| Lowest odds | 6.57 | 4.64 | 1.29 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.15 | 81.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.61 | 1.56 | 60.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.45 | 2.38 | 39.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.42 | 2.36 | 39.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.85 | 1.83 | 50.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.00 | 1.88 | 49.3% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 13/11/26, 20:14. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 7.5%.
Under 3.5 as the second tip
Our second tip is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36 (chance 70%). We have one reason for it. Wales have had more than 2.5 goals in only one of their last four matches, and the bookmakers give the under 3.5 line a 70% chance at best odds of 1.36.
We would not put big stakes on it. We think the bookmakers' price is fair rather than generous. It is a sensible second thought if you want to play the match from a different angle, but it is the smaller of our two opinions.
What the likeliest scores settle
The main tip wins on 0-2, 1-2, 0-3, 0-1 and 1-3, and it loses only on 1-1. The second tip wins on 0-2, 1-2, 0-3, 0-1 and 1-1, and it loses on 1-3. Those two settlements show where the bets part company: a 1-1 draw is the bad result for Portugal, while a 1-3 scoreline is the one that costs us the under.
Wales vs Portugal: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
Market prices and the other totals
The bookmakers have over 2.5 goals at 66% with best odds of 1.39, and under 2.5 at 34% with best odds of 2.67. The over 3.5 line is at 44% with best odds of 2.09. Both teams to score is 54% yes at best odds of 1.68, and 46% no at best odds of 2.00. These figures only describe what the bookmakers expect; we are not turning any of them into selections of our own.
Our final word on Wales against Portugal
We expect Portugal to take the points, and we would not back Wales to win. The most likely score is 0-2, which Portugal win and which also keeps the under 3.5 tip alive. If you want a single bet from this page, Portugal to win at 1.61 is the one we are most comfortable with.
Returns calculator
Match events
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Wales vs Portugal?
Over 2.5 goals (1.61); Portugal to win (1.36).
Who will win Wales vs Portugal?
We estimate: Wales win 12%, draw 18%, Portugal win 70%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 17 November 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: to be confirmed.
Who will be missing?
Wales: no absences. Portugal: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 60% (odds 1.61); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 40% (odds 2.45).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 51% (odds 1.85).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 0–2 as most likely (11.3%), then 0–1 (9.9%) and 1–2 (9.6%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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