Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Albania against Finland on 12 November 2026 · 19:45 at Arena Kombëtare (Tirana), and Joao Pinheiro will referee. Albania (46%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Albania vs Finland: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Albania are 1st in the table, on 12 points after 5 matches (4W 0D 1L), and Finland are 3rd, on 7 points (2W 1D 2L).
- Attack and defence. On average Albania score 2.0 goals a match in the competition and concede 0.8; for Finland the figures are 2.3 scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Albania: 3W 0D 1L, goals 8–3; Finland: 2W 1D 1L, goals 9–2.
- Head to head. From 2 meetings: 1 win for Albania, 1 win for Finland and 0 draws, with the goals at 3–2.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 1–1 score estimate, roughly 2 goals in all, and 1–0 (16.1%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
In the goals market we pick Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.45), and we rate it at 66%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 41% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 34% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 2; Albania 1 win, 0 draws, Finland 1 win.
- An average of 2.5 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Albania 8–3, Finland 9–2.
- Expected: roughly 2 goals; over 2.5 goals: 34%.
- Out: Albania 0, Finland 0.
Alternative tip: Over 1.5 goals
Alternative tip: Over 1.5 goals (probability 60%, best price 1.62). With roughly 2 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Albania: no absences. Absent for Finland: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Albania vs Finland: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.12 | 3.06 | 4.40 |
| Market average | 2.06 | 2.98 | 4.14 |
| Lowest odds | 1.84 | 2.75 | 3.72 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.62 | 1.57 | 59.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.83 | 2.72 | 34.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.45 | 1.43 | 65.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 6.50 | 5.54 | 17.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.38 | 2.25 | 41.3% |
| BTTS – no | 1.65 | 1.58 | 58.7% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 12/11/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.6%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Albania 1–0 Finland, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Albania 1st (12 points), Finland 3rd (7 points).
- Form in the competition: Albania 3W 0D 1L (8:3), Finland 2W 1D 1L (9:2).
- H2H: 2 matches: Albania 1W 0D 1L, goals 3–2.
- Absences: Albania 0, Finland 0.
Who will win Albania vs Finland?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Albania vs Finland: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Albania vs Finland: team news and absences
Albania
- No reported absences
Finland
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
League C – Group A
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albania | 5 | 4-0-1 | 10:3 | 12 |
| 2 |  Belarus | 5 | 3-1-1 | 7:2 | 10 |
| 3 | Finland | 5 | 2-1-2 | 9:4 | 7 |
| 4 |  San Marino | 5 | 0-0-5 | 1:18 | 0 |
Recent matches
Albania
Home and away
Albania vs Finland: last matches of both teams
Albania
Finland
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
AlbaniaWWLWWFinlandLLWDWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Albania vs Finland?
Draw or Finland (X2) (1.92); Under 2.5 goals (1.45).
Who will win Albania vs Finland?
We estimate: Albania win 46%, draw 32%, Finland win 23%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 12 November 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Arena Kombëtare, Tirana. Referee: Joao Pinheiro.
Who will be missing?
Albania: no absences. Finland: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 34% (odds 2.83); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 66% (odds 1.45).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 41% (odds 2.38).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–0 as most likely (16.1%), then 1–1 (12.9%) and 0–0 (12.9%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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