Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg: prediction, tip and odds, 5 November 2026, UEFA Europa League

Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg betting prediction

Anderlecht host Red Bull Salzburg at Lotto Park on 5 November 2026. Both sides have struggled in the group, but the numbers suggest a tight encounter with a slight edge to the Austrians. We’ll walk through the form, goal expectations, absences and the betting angles before laying out our recommendation.

How have the teams performed recently?

Anderlecht have earned three points from three games, with a solitary win against KVC Westerlo (4‑1) and two defeats, including a heavy 4‑0 loss to Gent and a 0‑3 loss away at Dinamo Zagreb. Their most recent matches are:

• 31/10/26 – Anderlecht 4‑1 KVC Westerlo (home win)
• 25/10/26 – Gent 4‑0 Anderlecht (away loss)
• 22/10/26 – Jagiellonia 0‑3 Anderlecht (away win)
• 15/10/26 – Dinamo Zagreb 1‑0 Anderlecht (away loss)
• 10/10/26 – Cercle Brugge 1‑2 Anderlecht (away win)

In the Europa League this season Anderlecht have a record of 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 18 goals and conceding 7, which works out to an average of 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded per match. Their home record in the competition is especially poor: one loss, no wins or draws, with only one goal scored and two conceded at Lotto Park.

Red Bull Salzburg sit on four points after a win, a draw and a loss. Their recent form is:

• 22/10/26 – Celje 2‑2 Red Bull Salzburg (away draw)
• 15/10/26 – Red Bull Salzburg 0‑4 AC Milan (home loss)
• 17/9/26 – Levski Sofia 0‑1 Red Bull Salzburg (away win)
• 27/8/26 – Red Bull Salzburg 3‑0 Mjällby AIF (home win)
• 20/8/26 – Mjällby AIF 0‑1 Red Bull Salzburg (away win)

In the competition Salzburg have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 11 goals and conceding 9, which translates to 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 goals conceded per match. Their away record in the group is respectable: one win and one draw, with three goals for and two against on the road.

What do the goal stats tell us?

Anderlecht’s attacking output of 2.0 goals per game combined with a defensive record of 0.8 goals conceded makes them a team that scores but also keeps opponents at bay. Salzburg, on the other hand, average 1.6 goals per game while allowing 1.3, indicating a slightly more porous defence but also a capacity to find the net away from home.

The expected goals for the fixture round to about two for Anderlecht and one for Salzburg – roughly three goals in total. The most likely exact scores, based on the statistical model, are:

• 1‑1 – 10.7 % probability
• 2‑1 – 9.6 % probability
• 1‑0 – 8.5 % probability

These probabilities reflect the balance between Anderlecht’s home scoring difficulty (only one goal at Lotto Park so far) and Salzburg’s ability to pick up points away from home.

Are there any key absences?

Anderlecht will be without I. Camara, L. Hey, I. Koutsoupias, K. Sardella and M. Winkler. The missing players cover defensive and midfield positions, which could affect the Rouches’ ability to protect the back line that has already conceded two goals at home.

Salzburg face a long list of missing players: E. Aguilar, A. Chase, S. Kitano, F. Matijasevic, J. Mellberg, J. Moser, J. Omoregie, D. Redzic, D. Schmid, N. Veratschnig and J. Lindstrom. The breadth of these absences reaches across defence, midfield and attack, potentially limiting Salzburg’s attacking depth but also providing opportunities for squad rotation and fresh legs.

What does the betting market suggest?

Bookmakers give Anderlecht a 49 % chance to win at odds 1.98, a draw 25 % at odds 4.00 and a Salzburg win 26 % at odds 3.82. The implied bookmaker margin on the match result is 6.3 %.

The Asian handicap market heavily favours Salzburg at +0.75 with a 56 % implied probability and odds 1.76. The full range of handicap lines and their associated chances and best odds are:

• Anderlecht -1.25 – 32 % chance, odds 3.02
• Salzburg +1.25 – 68 % chance, odds 1.40
• Anderlecht -1 – 36 % chance, odds 2.67
• Salzburg +1 – 64 % chance, odds 1.52
• Anderlecht -0.75 – 44 % chance, odds 2.21
• Salzburg +0.75 – 56 % chance, odds 1.76
• Anderlecht -0.5 – 50 % chance, odds 1.94
• Salzburg +0.5 – 50 % chance, odds 1.93
• Anderlecht -0.25 – 57 % chance, odds 1.68
• Salzburg +0.25 – 43 % chance, odds 2.22
• Anderlecht +0 – 66 % chance, odds 1.46
• Salzburg +0 – 34 % chance, odds 2.88
• Anderlecht +0.25 – 70 % chance, odds 1.35
• Salzburg -0.25 – 30 % chance, odds 3.21

Goal‑line markets show a 61 % chance for under 3.5 goals (odds 1.57) and a 39 % chance for over 3.5 goals (odds 2.50). The over/under 2.5 line is split 59 % for over (odds 1.64) and 41 % for under (odds 2.38). The over/under 1.5 line heavily favours over, with an 80 % chance (odds 1.20) and only a 20 % chance for under (odds 5.00).

Both teams to score (BTTS) carries a 61 % probability at odds 1.55, while the “no” option stands at 39 % (odds 2.55). A safer “Anderlecht or draw” (1X) bet offers odds 1.30 with a 74 % implied chance.

What is our main betting recommendation?

Red Bull Salzburg +0.75 (Asian handicap) – odds 1.76 (56 % chance). This bet wins if Salzburg win or draw, and results in a half‑stake loss if they lose by a single goal (half the stake is returned). It captures the expectation of a close contest while protecting against a narrow Anderlecht victory, which is plausible given Anderlecht’s modest home scoring record.

Any secondary options worth considering?

• Under 3.5 goals – odds 1.57 (61 % chance)
• Both teams to score – yes – odds 1.55 (61 % chance)
• Anderlecht or draw (1X) – odds 1.30 (74 % chance) – safer but lower return
• BTTS – yes – odds 1.55 (61 % chance) – value alternative

Given Anderlecht’s single goal at home this season and Salzburg’s ability to pick up points away from home, a low‑scoring, tightly contested match is the most probable scenario. The expected three‑goal total aligns with the under 3.5 goal market, while the 61 % BTTS probability suggests both sides will find the net at least once. The +0.75 handicap therefore offers the best balance of risk and reward, covering the most likely outcomes while delivering attractive odds.