Bet with Freshbet →It is Lillestrøm against Plzeň on 5 November 2026 · 17:45 at Åråsen Stadion (Lillestrøm), and Radoslav Gidzhenov will referee. This one looks too close to call. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Lillestrøm vs Plzeň betting prediction
Plzeň have one win in this tournament, yet we expect them to avoid defeat at Åråsen Stadion on 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45. Our top selection is Plzeň +0 (Asian handicap) at odds of 1.69, with a 58% chance. Should Plzeň triumph, the wager wins; if the match ends level, the stake comes back; only a home victory costs us the bet. This lets us side with the visitors without requiring an outright away win.
Lillestrøm's struggles at home in this competition
Lillestrøm occupy 31st place in this competition after three matches, collecting just a single point from a draw and two defeats. Their goals stand at 2:9, and the home form is the weakest part of the picture: at Åråsen across two games they have taken no points, scored one goal and conceded eight. Over the season in this competition they average 0.8 scored and 2.0 conceded per match, which tells the same story.
These figures only reflect this tournament, so they tell us nothing about the club's form in its domestic league. Even so, the weakness at home is what concerns us most. A team averaging under a goal per home game is unlikely to open up a safe advantage against any opponent, and Lillestrøm have yet to prove they can keep a clean sheet in front of their own supporters.
Plzeň's away scoring and the defensive questions
Plzeň sit 33rd with no points yet, and their goal record of 2:7 is better than Lillestrøm's 2:9. Their lone away fixture in the competition ended 1-2 in defeat, a single goal scored against two conceded, so we treat that small sample with caution. This season they average 1.4 goals scored per game, yet they let in 2.2, a defensive figure close to Lillestrøm's 2.0.
Looking at every competition together, the form is more encouraging. In their last five games, Plzeň have won twice, lost three times, and found the net ten times while shipping eight. On the road they have been ruthless at times, most notably with a 4-0 win at Baník Ostrava and a 3-2 victory at Jablonec.
Still, we would not fully back their defence, since they went down 1-2 at home against both Levski Sofia and Pardubice.
Recent form and the meeting that never happened
Across their last five outings in every competition, Lillestrøm collected three victories, one draw and one loss, while scoring seven times and letting in nine. The 0-6 defeat at home to Real Sociedad is the one that jumps out, and it is the scoreline we keep coming back to when we assess their defence. Still, their 3-2 home win over Brann and the 2-0 success at Sandefjord prove the attack can find the net.
These two sides have never met before, so no head-to-head record exists to guide the read. As far as we can see, the injury list is light: Lillestrøm will be without E. B. Garnas and C. Jebara, and Plzeň are missing V. Jemelka and M. Tvrdon. None of those four players alters how we view the contest, so the tip does not hinge on their availability.
What the odds say about the result
Bookmakers see Plzeň as the most likely winner at 43% (best odds 2.24), followed by Lillestrøm at 31% (best odds 3.10) and the draw at 25% (best odds 3.90). The overround on the 1X2 market sits at 6.6%. Those figures reflect what the odds-makers expect to happen, not a tally of previous results, and that is why Plzeň +0 is priced at 1.69 instead of something shorter.
Our model gives Plzeň an expected 2 goals and Lillestrøm 1, roughly three overall. The likeliest exact results are 1-1 at 10.7%, 1-2 at 9.1% and 0-1 at 7.7%. For our main tip, a 1-1 draw returns the stake, while 1-2 and 0-1 both land a win. A 2-1 home victory loses, and 0-2 wins. Put simply, the tip runs into trouble mainly when the hosts secure all three points.
Another tip: Both teams to score
Our second pick: Both teams to score, odds 1.50 (chance 63%). Lillestrøm has gone just one match out of its last five without scoring. Plzeň has found the net in each of its last five outings, and that record stands out most to us. Both sides scored in four of Plzeň's previous five. We project roughly three goals in total, so the price seems reasonable. The wager pays out on 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 and 2-2 and loses on 0-1 and 0-2.
Other bets worth a look at these prices
- Plzeň +0.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.40 (chance 68%): this stake only loses if Plzeň lose by one goal or more, which makes it the most secure partner for our primary selection.
- Draw or Plzeň (X2) at odds 1.41 (chance 69%): a more cautious pick that wins if the match ends level or Plzeň takes the points.
- Over 2.5 goals at odds 1.60 (chance 61%): the projected combined tally sits near three, though a restrained stake is the sensible approach.
Our preference is to back Plzeň not to lose instead of asking them to win outright. Their attack has been the stronger of the two in this set of games, and the home back line is the frailty we return to again and again. We think a draw or a tight Plzeň victory is the most likely result.
Lillestrøm vs Plzeň: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 3.04 | 4.00 | 2.36 |
| Market average | 2.90 | 3.75 | 2.24 |
| Lowest odds | 2.80 | 3.35 | 2.18 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.16 | 80.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 1.57 | 60.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.47 | 2.39 | 39.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.55 | 2.39 | 39.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.49 | 62.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.55 | 2.50 | 37.3% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 5/11/26, 08:13. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.8%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Lillestrøm 1–1 Plzeň, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Lillestrøm 31st (1 point), Plzeň 33rd (0 points).
- Form in the competition: Lillestrøm 1W 2D 2L (4:10), Plzeň 1W 0D 4L (7:11).
- Absences: Lillestrøm 2, Plzeň 2.
Who will win Lillestrøm vs Plzeň?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Lillestrøm vs Plzeň: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Lillestrøm vs Plzeň: team news and absences
Lillestrøm
- E. B. Garnasknee injury · will miss the match
- C. Jebaragroin injury · will miss the match
Plzeň
- V. Jemelkaknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Tvrdonnot in the squad · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3-1-0 | 4:1 | 10 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 3 | 3-0-0 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 3 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:0 | 9 |
| 4 |  Bournemouth | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Ferencvárosi TC | 3 | 3-0-0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 6 |  Union Saint-Gilloise | 3 | 2-1-0 | 8:1 | 7 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:3 | 7 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Sunderland | 3 | 2-1-0 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 10 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2-0-1 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 11 |  Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 12 |  Rennes | 4 | 1-3-0 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Sparta Praha | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 17 |  Levski Sofia | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 19 |  Sturm Graz | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1:3 | 4 |
| 20 |  NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 21 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 22 |  Anderlecht | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 24 |  AC Milan | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 25 |  Celta Vigo | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 26 |  OFI | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 27 |  Jagiellonia | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 |  Torreense | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 |  Celje | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:7 | 1 |
| 30 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 31 | Lillestrøm | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:9 | 1 |
| 32 |  Lech Poznań | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:9 | 1 |
| 33 | Plzeň | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 |  Marseille | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Celtic | 3 | 0-0-3 | 3:9 | 0 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:11 | 0 |
Recent matches
Lillestrøm
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
LillestrømLDLPlzeňLLLReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Lillestrøm vs Plzeň?
Plzeň +0 (Asian handicap) (1.76); Both teams to score (1.50).
Who will win Lillestrøm vs Plzeň?
We estimate: Lillestrøm win 33%, draw 25%, Plzeň win 42%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 5 November 2026, kick-off: 17:45, venue: Åråsen Stadion, Lillestrøm. Referee: Radoslav Gidzhenov.
Who will be missing?
Lillestrøm: E. B. Garnas, C. Jebara. Plzeň: V. Jemelka, M. Tvrdon. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 60% (odds 1.60); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 40% (odds 2.47).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 63% (odds 1.50).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.8%), then 1–2 (8.9%) and 2–1 (7.8%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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