Bet with Freshbet →Real Sociedad play Lyon at home on 5 November 2026 · 17:45 at Anoeta Stadium (San Sebastián); the referee is Anastasios Papapetrou. For us, Real Sociedad (57%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Real Sociedad vs Lyon betting prediction
Real Sociedad host Lyon at the Anoeta Stadium on 5 November 2026, a clash that pits a struggling home side against a French outfit that has shown more bite on the road. Both teams have already tasted the highs and lows of the Europa League group, and the statistics give us a clear picture of what to expect when the whistle blows at 17:45.
Real Sociedad’s home woes
In the league table Real Sociedad sit 14th with 4 points from three matches. Their overall record is balanced – one win, one draw and one loss – but at home they have yet to earn a point, losing their sole game 1‑2. They have scored eight goals while conceding three across all fixtures, averaging 2.7 per match and just one against.
The recent form shows a mixed bag. After a 1‑2 defeat to Athletic Club on 1 November, they bounced back with a 2‑1 win over Levante (25 October) and a dominant 6‑0 victory against Lillestrøm (22 October). Earlier in the month they enjoyed a 5‑2 win at Málaga and a 1‑1 draw with Union St. Gilloise. The home side will be without L. Beitia, A. Odriozola and A. Zakharyan, which could blunt their attacking options.
Lyon’s away credentials
Lyon occupy 12th place with six points, having won two of their three games. Their away record includes one win and one loss, scoring two and conceding four on the road. Overall they have netted five and let in six, translating to 1.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match.
On the road they have already demonstrated resilience: a 2‑0 win over Angers (1 November) was followed by a 2‑1 victory at Nice (18 October) and a 3‑2 triumph at Crystal Palace (15 October). However, they suffered a 3‑0 defeat at the hands of 1899 Hoffenheim (22 October) and a 2‑0 loss to Paris Saint‑Germain (26 October). Lyon will be missing S. Kango, T. Morton, L. Openda, M. Ouedraogo and P. Sulc, a sizable absentee list that could affect depth.
Recent head‑to‑heads and missing pieces
The last two meetings between the clubs have favoured Real Sociedad, who won both games 2‑0 in August 2013. Those fixtures produced four goals, all for the home side, indicating a historical edge that may still linger.
Both teams are dealing with several absences. Real Sociedad’s three missing players could limit their creativity, while Lyon’s five missing names thin their attacking options. The balance of these omissions will be crucial given the tight margins suggested by the odds.
Odds, main tip and alternatives
Bookmakers give Real Sociedad a 52 % chance of winning (best odds 1.85), a draw 24 % (odds 4.11) and Lyon 23 % (odds 4.25). Our main tip follows the Asian handicap market: Lyon +0.75 at odds 2.09, with a 53 % implied probability. This means half the stake is placed on Lyon +0.5 (wins unless Lyon lose by one or more) and half on Lyon +1 (wins unless Lyon lose by more than one; a defeat by exactly one returns the stake).
The second tip is Both Teams to Score at odds 1.53, reflecting a 61 % chance that both sides will find the net.
For those seeking a safer route, the Real Sociedad or draw (1X) offers odds 1.25 with a 77 % implied probability. As a value alternative, the BTTS market at 1.53 also looks attractive.
Other betting options
- Real Sociedad -1.25 (35 % chance, odds 2.83)
- Lyon +1.25 (65 % chance, odds 1.49)
- Real Sociedad -1 (40 % chance, odds 2.49)
- Lyon +1 (60 % chance, odds 1.61)
- Over 1.5 goals (81 % chance, odds 1.18)
- Over 2.5 goals (61 % chance, odds 1.57)
- Under 3.5 goals (60 % chance, odds 1.63)
With an expected three goals in total and a 61 % probability of both sides scoring, the match promises action. We back Lyon +0.75 as the most balanced choice, while the BTTS market offers solid value for those who like a goal‑rich encounter.
Real Sociedad vs Lyon: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.85 | 4.42 | 5.00 |
| Market average | 1.68 | 4.17 | 4.67 |
| Lowest odds | 1.62 | 3.83 | 4.10 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.16 | 81.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 1.54 | 61.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.56 | 2.45 | 38.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.45 | 2.35 | 40.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.55 | 60.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.45 | 2.33 | 40.0% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 5/11/26, 08:13. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.2%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Real Sociedad 2–1 Lyon, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Real Sociedad 14th (4 points), Lyon 13th (6 points).
- Form in the competition: Real Sociedad 1W 1D 1L (8:3), Lyon 2W 0D 1L (5:6).
- H2H: 2 matches: Real Sociedad 2W 0D 0L, goals 4–0.
- Absences: Real Sociedad 3, Lyon 5.
Who will win Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Real Sociedad vs Lyon: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Real Sociedad vs Lyon: team news and absences
Real Sociedad
- A. Odriozolaknee injury · will miss the match
- L. Beitiaankle injury · doubtful
- A. Zakharyanankle injury · doubtful
Lyon
- S. Kangoconcussion · will miss the match
- L. Opendaabsence · will miss the match
- M. Ouedraogoknee injury · will miss the match
- P. Sulcknee injury · will miss the match
- T. Mortongroin injury · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3-1-0 | 4:1 | 10 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 3 | 3-0-0 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 3 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:0 | 9 |
| 4 |  Bournemouth | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Ferencvárosi TC | 3 | 3-0-0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 6 |  Union Saint-Gilloise | 3 | 2-1-0 | 8:1 | 7 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:3 | 7 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Sunderland | 3 | 2-1-0 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 10 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2-0-1 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 11 |  Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 12 |  Rennes | 4 | 1-3-0 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 13 | Lyon | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Sparta Praha | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 17 |  Levski Sofia | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 19 |  Sturm Graz | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1:3 | 4 |
| 20 |  NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 21 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 22 |  Anderlecht | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 24 |  AC Milan | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 25 |  Celta Vigo | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 26 |  OFI | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 27 |  Jagiellonia | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 |  Torreense | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 |  Celje | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:7 | 1 |
| 30 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 31 |  Lillestrøm | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:9 | 1 |
| 32 |  Lech Poznań | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:9 | 1 |
| 33 |  Plzeň | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 |  Marseille | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Celtic | 3 | 0-0-3 | 3:9 | 0 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:11 | 0 |
Recent matches
Real Sociedad
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
Real SociedadWDLLyonLWWHead to head
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
Lyon +0.75 (Asian handicap) (2.09); Both teams to score (1.57).
Who will win Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
We estimate: Real Sociedad win 57%, draw 23%, Lyon win 20%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 5 November 2026, kick-off: 17:45, venue: Anoeta Stadium, San Sebastián. Referee: Anastasios Papapetrou.
Who will be missing?
Real Sociedad: A. Odriozola, L. Beitia, A. Zakharyan. Lyon: S. Kango, L. Openda, M. Ouedraogo, P. Sulc, T. Morton. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 61% (odds 1.57); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 39% (odds 2.56).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 60% (odds 1.57).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (9.9%), then 1–1 (9.9%) and 2–0 (8.6%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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