Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Arouca against Nacional on 1 November 2026 · 15:30 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca (Aruca), and Luís Miguel Branco Godinho will referee. Arouca (59%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Arouca vs Nacional: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Arouca are 5th in the table, on 20 points after 10 matches (6W 2D 2L), and Nacional are 15th, on 7 points (2W 1D 7L).
- Attack and defence. On average Arouca score 1.3 goals a match in the competition and concede 0.8; for Nacional the figures are 1.1 scored and 2.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Arouca: 5W 2D 2L, goals 12–7; Nacional: 2W 1D 6L, goals 10–18.
- Head to head. From 15 meetings: 8 wins for Arouca, 2 wins for Nacional and 5 draws, with the goals at 24–14.
What to expect
For us, Arouca are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–0 (11.8%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.90), and we rate it at 52%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 51% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 52% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 15; Arouca 8 wins, 5 draws, Nacional 2 wins.
- An average of 2.5 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Arouca 12–7, Nacional 10–18.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 52%.
- Out: Arouca 0, Nacional 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 51%, best price 1.87). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Arouca: no absences. Absent for Nacional: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Arouca vs Nacional: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.71 | 4.24 | 5.78 |
| Market average | 1.59 | 3.99 | 5.39 |
| Lowest odds | 1.53 | 3.46 | 4.29 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.25 | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 1.84 | 51.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.04 | 1.96 | 48.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.10 | 3.04 | 30.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.87 | 1.82 | 50.9% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.89 | 49.1% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 1/11/26, 13:45. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.6%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Arouca 1–0 Nacional, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Arouca 5th (20 points), Nacional 15th (7 points).
- Form in the competition: Arouca 5W 2D 2L (12:7), Nacional 2W 1D 6L (10:18).
- H2H: 15 matches: Arouca 8W 5D 2L, goals 24–14.
- Absences: Arouca 0, Nacional 0.
Who will win Arouca vs Nacional?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Arouca vs Nacional: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Arouca vs Nacional: team news and absences
Arouca
- No reported absences
Nacional
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 | Arouca | 10 | 6-2-2 | 13:7 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicão | 10 | 2-4-4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 | Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Arouca
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
AroucaWWWDLNacionalLWLLLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Arouca vs Nacional?
Arouca -0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.95); Over 2.5 goals (1.90).
Who will win Arouca vs Nacional?
We estimate: Arouca win 59%, draw 24%, Nacional win 18%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 1 November 2026, kick-off: 15:30, venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Aruca. Referee: Luís Miguel Branco Godinho.
Who will be missing?
Arouca: no absences. Nacional: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 52% (odds 1.90); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 48% (odds 2.04).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 51% (odds 1.87).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–0 as most likely (11.8%), then 2–0 (10.9%) and 1–1 (10.6%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.