Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Alverca play Arouca at home on 24 October 2026 · 18:00 at FC Alverca Sports Complex (Alverca do Ribatejo); the referee is P. Ramalho. For us, Alverca (46%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Alverca vs Arouca: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Alverca are 10th in the table, on 11 points after 10 matches (3W 2D 5L), and Arouca are 5th, on 20 points (6W 2D 2L).
- Attack and defence. On average Alverca score 1.6 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.5; for Arouca the figures are 1.4 scored and 0.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Alverca: 3W 2D 3L, goals 13–12; Arouca: 4W 2D 2L, goals 11–7.
- Head to head. From 3 meetings: 1 win for Alverca, 2 wins for Arouca and 0 draws, with the goals at 2–3.
What to expect
For us, Alverca are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (12.3%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
What stands out is that the table favours the Arouca, whereas the betting market leans slightly towards the home side. When the indicators disagree like this, the match is difficult to read, and a more careful bet is the sensible choice.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.75), and we rate it at 55%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 55% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 50% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 3; Alverca 1 win, 0 draws, Arouca 2 wins.
- An average of 1.7 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Alverca 13–12, Arouca 11–7.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 50%.
- Out: Alverca 0, Arouca 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 55%, best price 1.75). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Alverca: no absences. Absent for Arouca: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Alverca vs Arouca: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.13 | 3.45 | 3.97 |
| Market average | 2.06 | 3.31 | 3.67 |
| Lowest odds | 2.00 | 3.18 | 3.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 1.27 | 73.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 1.91 | 49.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.93 | 1.88 | 50.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.40 | 3.22 | 29.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.75 | 1.70 | 54.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.05 | 45.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 24/10/26, 14:24. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.1%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Alverca 1–1 Arouca, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Alverca 10th (11 points), Arouca 5th (20 points).
- Form in the competition: Alverca 3W 2D 3L (13:12), Arouca 4W 2D 2L (11:7).
- H2H: 3 matches: Alverca 1W 0D 2L, goals 2–3.
- Absences: Alverca 0, Arouca 0.
Who will win Alverca vs Arouca?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Alverca vs Arouca: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Alverca vs Arouca: team news and absences
Alverca
- No reported absences
Arouca
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 | Arouca | 10 | 6-2-2 | 13:7 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 | Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicão | 10 | 2-4-4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Alverca
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
AlvercaLLWWWAroucaWWWDLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Alverca vs Arouca?
Alverca -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.81); Both teams to score (1.75).
Who will win Alverca vs Arouca?
We estimate: Alverca win 46%, draw 28%, Arouca win 26%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 24 October 2026, kick-off: 18:00, venue: FC Alverca Sports Complex, Alverca do Ribatejo. Referee: P. Ramalho.
Who will be missing?
Alverca: no absences. Arouca: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 50% (odds 1.95); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 50% (odds 1.93).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 55% (odds 1.75).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (12.3%), then 1–0 (11.1%) and 2–1 (9.2%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.