Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Burgos play Castellón at home on 1 November 2026 · 17:30 at Municipal El Plantío (Burgos); the referee is Rafael Sanchez Lopez. For us, Castellón (46%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Burgos vs Castellón: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Burgos are 8th in the table, on 21 points after 12 matches (6W 3D 3L), and Castellón are 1st, on 27 points (8W 3D 1L).
- Attack and defence. On average Burgos score 1.5 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.1; for Castellón the figures are 2.0 scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Burgos: 6W 2D 3L, goals 16–12; Castellón: 8W 2D 1L, goals 22–4.
- Head to head. From 4 meetings: 0 wins for Burgos, 3 wins for Castellón and 1 draw, with the goals at 2–7.
What to expect
For us, Castellón are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (12.0%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.73), and we rate it at 55%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 55% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 50% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 4; Burgos 0 wins, 1 draw, Castellón 3 wins.
- An average of 2.3 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Burgos 16–12, Castellón 22–4.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 50%.
- Out: Burgos 0, Castellón 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 55%, best price 1.73). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Burgos: no absences. Absent for Castellón: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Burgos vs Castellón: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 4.32 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| Market average | 3.75 | 3.22 | 2.03 |
| Lowest odds | 3.29 | 3.00 | 1.95 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 1.26 | 74.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 1.88 | 50.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.97 | 1.91 | 49.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.30 | 3.12 | 30.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.68 | 55.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.07 | 44.7% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 1/11/26, 17:05. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 7.3%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Burgos 1–1 Castellón, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Burgos 8th (21 points), Castellón 1st (27 points).
- Form in the competition: Burgos 6W 2D 3L (16:12), Castellón 8W 2D 1L (22:4).
- H2H: 4 matches: Burgos 0W 1D 3L, goals 2–7.
- Absences: Burgos 0, Castellón 0.
Who will win Burgos vs Castellón?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Burgos vs Castellón: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Burgos vs Castellón: team news and absences
Burgos
- No reported absences
Castellón
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón | 12 | 8-3-1 | 23:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Almería | 12 | 8-2-2 | 23:10 | 26 |
| 3 |  Eibar | 12 | 7-2-3 | 21:14 | 23 |
| 4 |  Granada CF | 12 | 7-2-3 | 20:14 | 23 |
| 5 |  Mallorca | 12 | 6-4-2 | 15:7 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sporting Gijón | 12 | 7-1-4 | 13:13 | 22 |
| 7 |  Girona | 12 | 6-3-3 | 22:11 | 21 |
| 8 | Burgos | 12 | 6-3-3 | 17:13 | 21 |
| 9 |  Oviedo | 12 | 5-3-4 | 17:15 | 18 |
| 10 |  Sabadell | 12 | 4-5-3 | 12:11 | 17 |
| 11 |  Las Palmas | 12 | 5-2-5 | 17:21 | 17 |
| 12 |  Córdoba | 12 | 5-1-6 | 19:22 | 16 |
| 13 |  Valladolid | 12 | 4-3-5 | 20:19 | 15 |
| 14 |  Tenerife | 11 | 3-5-3 | 13:15 | 14 |
| 15 |  Eldense | 12 | 4-2-6 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 16 |  Celta de Vigo II | 12 | 3-4-5 | 18:23 | 13 |
| 17 |  Leganés | 12 | 3-3-6 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 18 |  Real Sociedad II | 12 | 3-2-7 | 15:22 | 11 |
| 19 |  Cádiz | 12 | 2-4-6 | 15:16 | 10 |
| 20 |  FC Andorra | 11 | 3-1-7 | 15:20 | 10 |
| 21 |  Albacete | 12 | 2-1-9 | 10:23 | 7 |
| 22 |  AD Ceuta FC | 12 | 1-2-9 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Burgos
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
BurgosDWWLLCastellónDWWLDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Burgos vs Castellón?
Castellón +0 (Asian handicap) (1.52); Both teams to score (1.73).
Who will win Burgos vs Castellón?
We estimate: Burgos win 25%, draw 29%, Castellón win 46%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 1 November 2026, kick-off: 17:30, venue: Municipal El Plantío, Burgos. Referee: Rafael Sanchez Lopez.
Who will be missing?
Burgos: no absences. Castellón: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 50% (odds 1.95); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 50% (odds 1.97).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 55% (odds 1.73).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (12.0%), then 0–1 (11.0%) and 1–2 (9.3%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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