Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Casa Pia play Sporting CP at home on 30 October 2026 · 20:15 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior (Rio Mayor); the referee is Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca. For us, Sporting CP (74%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Casa Pia are 17th in the table, on 7 points after 10 matches (2W 1D 7L), and Sporting CP are 3rd, on 21 points (6W 3D 1L).
- Attack and defence. On average Casa Pia score 0.6 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.9; for Sporting CP the figures are 2.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Casa Pia: 2W 1D 6L, goals 5–17; Sporting CP: 5W 3D 1L, goals 21–11.
- Head to head. From 10 meetings: 0 wins for Casa Pia, 10 wins for Sporting CP and 0 draws, with the goals at 7–31.
What to expect
For us, Sporting CP are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 0–2 (12.2%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.55), and we rate it at 62%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 49% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 62% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 10; Casa Pia 0 wins, 0 draws, Sporting CP 10 wins.
- An average of 3.8 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Casa Pia 5–17, Sporting CP 21–11.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 62%.
- Out: Casa Pia 0, Sporting CP 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals (probability 59%, best price 1.65). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Casa Pia: no absences. Absent for Sporting CP: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 11.10 | 6.36 | 1.32 |
| Market average | 9.92 | 5.79 | 1.27 |
| Lowest odds | 7.24 | 4.84 | 1.22 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.15 | 81.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.55 | 1.50 | 62.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | 2.48 | 37.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.42 | 2.29 | 41.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.90 | 49.0% |
| BTTS – no | 1.91 | 1.83 | 51.0% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 30/10/26, 18:09. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.7%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Casa Pia 0–2 Sporting CP, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Casa Pia 17th (7 points), Sporting CP 3rd (21 points).
- Form in the competition: Casa Pia 2W 1D 6L (5:17), Sporting CP 5W 3D 1L (21:11).
- H2H: 10 matches: Casa Pia 0W 0D 10L, goals 7–31.
- Absences: Casa Pia 0, Sporting CP 0.
Who will win Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: team news and absences
Casa Pia
- No reported absences
Sporting CP
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 10 | 6-2-2 | 13:7 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicão | 10 | 2-4-4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Casa Pia
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
Casa PiaLWLWLSporting CPWLWDDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
Casa Pia +1.75 (Asian handicap) (1.86); Over 2.5 goals (1.55).
Who will win Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
We estimate: Casa Pia win 10%, draw 16%, Sporting CP win 74%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 30 October 2026, kick-off: 20:15, venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Mayor. Referee: Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca.
Who will be missing?
Casa Pia: no absences. Sporting CP: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 62% (odds 1.55); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 38% (odds 2.63).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 49% (odds 1.95).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 0–2 as most likely (12.2%), then 0–3 (10.0%) and 0–1 (10.0%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.