Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Estrela play Casa Pia at home on 24 October 2026 · 15:30 at Estádio José Gomes (Amadora); the referee is B. J. Costa. For us, Estrela (53%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Estrela vs Casa Pia: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Estrela are 12th in the table, on 10 points after 10 matches (2W 4D 4L), and Casa Pia are 17th, on 7 points (2W 1D 7L).
- Attack and defence. On average Estrela score 1.8 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.9; for Casa Pia the figures are 0.4 scored and 2.1 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Estrela: 2W 4D 2L, goals 14–15; Casa Pia: 1W 1D 6L, goals 3–17.
- Head to head. From 11 meetings: 5 wins for Estrela, 5 wins for Casa Pia and 1 draw, with the goals at 16–14.
What to expect
For us, Estrela are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (11.4%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.81), and we rate it at 53%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 53% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 50% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 11; Estrela 5 wins, 1 draw, Casa Pia 5 wins.
- An average of 2.7 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Estrela 14–15, Casa Pia 3–17.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 50%.
- Out: Estrela 0, Casa Pia 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 53%, best price 1.81). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Estrela: no absences. Absent for Casa Pia: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Estrela vs Casa Pia: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.84 | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| Market average | 1.79 | 3.59 | 4.55 |
| Lowest odds | 1.74 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.27 | 73.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.96 | 1.89 | 50.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.98 | 1.91 | 49.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.32 | 3.19 | 29.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.81 | 1.77 | 52.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 1.96 | 47.5% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 24/10/26, 14:24. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.8%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Estrela 1–1 Casa Pia, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Estrela 12th (10 points), Casa Pia 17th (7 points).
- Form in the competition: Estrela 2W 4D 2L (14:15), Casa Pia 1W 1D 6L (3:17).
- H2H: 11 matches: Estrela 5W 1D 5L, goals 16–14.
- Absences: Estrela 0, Casa Pia 0.
Who will win Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Estrela vs Casa Pia: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Estrela vs Casa Pia: team news and absences
Estrela
- No reported absences
Casa Pia
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 10 | 6-2-2 | 13:7 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicão | 10 | 2-4-4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Estrela
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
EstrelaLLLLDCasa PiaLWLWLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Estrela -0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.85); Both teams to score (1.81).
Who will win Estrela vs Casa Pia?
We estimate: Estrela win 53%, draw 26%, Casa Pia win 21%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 24 October 2026, kick-off: 15:30, venue: Estádio José Gomes, Amadora. Referee: B. J. Costa.
Who will be missing?
Estrela: no absences. Casa Pia: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 50% (odds 1.96); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 50% (odds 1.98).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 53% (odds 1.81).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.4%), then 1–0 (11.4%) and 2–1 (9.7%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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