Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
England v Croatia: 12 November 2026 · 19:45 at Wembley Stadium (London), with Morten Krogh refereeing. We have England (76%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Wins: England win by 2 or more. Loses: England win by 1, a draw, England lose.
England vs Croatia: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. England are 2nd in the table, on 12 points after 5 matches (4W 0D 1L), and Croatia are 3rd, on 3 points (1W 0D 4L).
- Attack and defence. On average England score 3.5 goals a match in the competition and concede 0.8; for Croatia the figures are 1.0 scored and 3.5 conceded.
- Form in the competition. England: 3W 0D 1L, goals 14–3; Croatia: 1W 0D 3L, goals 4–14.
- Head to head. From 7 meetings: 5 wins for England, 1 win for Croatia and 1 draw, with the goals at 17–6.
What to expect
For us, England are the more likely winners. We estimate a 3–1 score, roughly 4 goals in all, with 2–0 (11.4%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
Odds of 1.28 on the result do not offer much, so it is worth turning to the goals markets: Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.47), which we rate at 65%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 50% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 65% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 7; England 5 wins, 1 draw, Croatia 1 win.
- An average of 3.3 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: England 14–3, Croatia 4–14.
- Expected: roughly 4 goals; over 2.5 goals: 65%.
- Out: England 0, Croatia 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals (probability 56%, best price 1.74). With roughly 4 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for England: no absences. Absent for Croatia: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
England vs Croatia: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.28 | 6.60 | 12.50 |
| Market average | 1.25 | 6.15 | 10.54 |
| Lowest odds | 1.21 | 5.22 | 7.91 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 1.12 | 83.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.47 | 1.44 | 65.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.80 | 2.68 | 35.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.23 | 2.16 | 43.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.88 | 1.85 | 50.2% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.86 | 49.8% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 12/11/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.9%.
At a glance
- Likely result: England 2–0 Croatia, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: England 2nd (12 points), Croatia 3rd (3 points).
- Form in the competition: England 3W 0D 1L (14:3), Croatia 1W 0D 3L (4:14).
- H2H: 7 matches: England 5W 1D 1L, goals 17–6.
- Absences: England 0, Croatia 0.
Who will win England vs Croatia?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
England vs Croatia: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
England vs Croatia: team news and absences
England
- No reported absences
Croatia
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
League A – Group C
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Spain | 5 | 5-0-0 | 14:5 | 15 |
| 2 | England | 5 | 4-0-1 | 16:4 | 12 |
| 3 | Croatia | 5 | 1-0-4 | 5:16 | 3 |
| 4 |  Czechia | 5 | 0-0-5 | 2:12 | 0 |
Recent matches
England
Home and away
England vs Croatia: last matches of both teams
England
Croatia
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
EnglandWWWWLCroatiaLLLLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for England vs Croatia?
England -1.5 (Asian handicap) (1.76); Over 2.5 goals (1.47).
Who will win England vs Croatia?
We estimate: England win 76%, draw 15%, Croatia win 9%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 12 November 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Wembley Stadium, London. Referee: Morten Krogh.
Who will be missing?
England: no absences. Croatia: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 65% (odds 1.47); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 35% (odds 2.80).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 50% (odds 1.88).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–0 as most likely (11.4%), then 3–0 (9.7%) and 2–1 (9.1%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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