Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Moreirense v Estrela: 31 October 2026 · 15:30 at Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas (Guimarães), with Joao Pinheiro refereeing. We see little between the teams. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Moreirense vs Estrela: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Moreirense are 9th in the table, on 14 points after 10 matches (4W 2D 4L), and Estrela are 12th, on 10 points (2W 4D 4L).
- Attack and defence. On average Moreirense score 1.2 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.8; for Estrela the figures are 1.6 scored and 1.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Moreirense: 3W 2D 4L, goals 11–16; Estrela: 2W 4D 3L, goals 14–17.
- Head to head. From 10 meetings: 5 wins for Moreirense, 1 win for Estrela and 4 draws, with the goals at 18–12.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 1–1 score estimate, roughly 2 goals in all, and 1–1 (12.9%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
What stands out is that the table favours the Moreirense, whereas the betting market leans slightly towards the away side. When the indicators disagree like this, the match is difficult to read, and a more careful bet is the sensible choice.
In the goals market we pick Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.82), and we rate it at 54%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 52% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 46% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 10; Moreirense 5 wins, 4 draws, Estrela 1 win.
- An average of 3.0 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Moreirense 11–16, Estrela 14–17.
- Expected: roughly 2 goals; over 2.5 goals: 46%.
- Out: Moreirense 0, Estrela 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 52%, best price 1.85). With roughly 2 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Moreirense: no absences. Absent for Estrela: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Moreirense vs Estrela: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 3.21 | 3.45 | 2.51 |
| Market average | 2.97 | 3.22 | 2.39 |
| Lowest odds | 2.58 | 3.00 | 2.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.38 | 1.34 | 69.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.17 | 2.07 | 45.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.82 | 1.75 | 54.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.82 | 3.71 | 25.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.85 | 1.80 | 51.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 1.93 | 48.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 31/10/26, 14:10. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.7%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Moreirense 1–1 Estrela, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Moreirense 9th (14 points), Estrela 12th (10 points).
- Form in the competition: Moreirense 3W 2D 4L (11:16), Estrela 2W 4D 3L (14:17).
- H2H: 10 matches: Moreirense 5W 4D 1L, goals 18–12.
- Absences: Moreirense 0, Estrela 0.
Who will win Moreirense vs Estrela?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Moreirense vs Estrela: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Moreirense vs Estrela: team news and absences
Moreirense
- No reported absences
Estrela
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 10 | 6-2-2 | 13:7 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicão | 10 | 2-4-4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Moreirense
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
MoreirenseWWLDWEstrelaLLLLDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Moreirense vs Estrela?
Moreirense +0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.85); Under 2.5 goals (1.82).
Who will win Moreirense vs Estrela?
We estimate: Moreirense win 32%, draw 29%, Estrela win 39%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 31 October 2026, kick-off: 15:30, venue: Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas, Guimarães. Referee: Joao Pinheiro.
Who will be missing?
Moreirense: no absences. Estrela: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 46% (odds 2.17); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 54% (odds 1.82).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 52% (odds 1.85).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (12.9%), then 0–1 (11.2%) and 1–0 (9.9%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.