Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
FC St. Pauli play 1. FC Nürnberg at home on 1 November 2026 · 12:30 at Millerntor-Stadion (St. Pauli Burger); the referee is Robert Hartmann. For us, there is no clear favourite. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. FC St. Pauli are 8th in the table, on 12 points after 10 matches (2W 6D 2L), and 1. FC Nürnberg are 2nd, on 21 points (6W 3D 1L).
- Attack and defence. On average FC St. Pauli score 1.2 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.0; for 1. FC Nürnberg the figures are 2.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
- Form in the competition. FC St. Pauli: 2W 6D 1L, goals 11–9; 1. FC Nürnberg: 5W 3D 1L, goals 21–12.
- Head to head. From 21 meetings: 11 wins for FC St. Pauli, 4 wins for 1. FC Nürnberg and 6 draws, with the goals at 32–28.
What to expect
For us, FC St. Pauli are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (11.2%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
What stands out is that the table favours the 1. FC Nürnberg, whereas the betting market leans slightly towards the home side. When the indicators disagree like this, the match is difficult to read, and a more careful bet is the sensible choice.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.50), and we rate it at 64%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 60% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 57% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 21; FC St. Pauli 11 wins, 6 draws, 1. FC Nürnberg 4 wins.
- An average of 2.9 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: FC St. Pauli 11–9, 1. FC Nürnberg 21–12.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 57%.
- Out: FC St. Pauli 0, 1. FC Nürnberg 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 60%, best price 1.57). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for FC St. Pauli: no absences. Absent for 1. FC Nürnberg: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.19 | 3.75 | 3.34 |
| Market average | 2.12 | 3.58 | 3.15 |
| Lowest odds | 2.05 | 3.28 | 2.91 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 1.18 | 78.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 1.66 | 56.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.24 | 2.17 | 43.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.67 | 2.56 | 36.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.53 | 60.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.40 | 2.35 | 39.5% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 1/11/26, 12:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 7.1%.
At a glance
- Likely result: FC St. Pauli 1–1 1. FC Nürnberg, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: FC St. Pauli 8th (12 points), 1. FC Nürnberg 2nd (21 points).
- Form in the competition: FC St. Pauli 2W 6D 1L (11:9), 1. FC Nürnberg 5W 3D 1L (21:12).
- H2H: 21 matches: FC St. Pauli 11W 6D 4L, goals 32–28.
- Absences: FC St. Pauli 0, 1. FC Nürnberg 0.
Who will win FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg: team news and absences
FC St. Pauli
- No reported absences
1. FC Nürnberg
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hertha BSC | 10 | 9-1-0 | 23:8 | 28 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 10 | 6-3-1 | 24:13 | 21 |
| 3 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 10 | 5-4-1 | 25:14 | 19 |
| 4 |  1. FC Kaiserslautern | 10 | 5-3-2 | 9:7 | 18 |
| 5 |  1. FC Magdeburg | 10 | 5-2-3 | 21:13 | 17 |
| 6 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 10 | 4-3-3 | 17:18 | 15 |
| 7 |  Arminia Bielefeld | 10 | 4-2-4 | 16:15 | 14 |
| 8 | FC St. Pauli | 10 | 2-6-2 | 12:12 | 12 |
| 9 |  SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 10 | 3-3-4 | 13:16 | 12 |
| 10 |  VfL Osnabrück | 10 | 3-2-5 | 14:17 | 11 |
| 11 |  VfL Bochum | 10 | 3-2-5 | 8:11 | 11 |
| 12 |  Hannover 96 | 10 | 3-2-5 | 10:16 | 11 |
| 13 |  Karlsruher SC | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:21 | 11 |
| 14 |  Energie Cottbus | 10 | 2-4-4 | 18:20 | 10 |
| 15 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 10 | 3-1-6 | 16:18 | 10 |
| 16 |  SV Darmstadt 98 | 10 | 2-3-5 | 9:19 | 9 |
| 17 |  Holstein Kiel | 10 | 1-5-4 | 10:12 | 8 |
| 18 |  Dynamo Dresden | 10 | 2-2-6 | 12:20 | 8 |
Recent matches
FC St. Pauli
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
FC St. PauliLDDWD1. FC NürnbergWLDDWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg +0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.78); Under 3.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
We estimate: FC St. Pauli win 44%, draw 26%, 1. FC Nürnberg win 30%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 1 November 2026, kick-off: 12:30, venue: Millerntor-Stadion, St. Pauli Burger. Referee: Robert Hartmann.
Who will be missing?
FC St. Pauli: no absences. 1. FC Nürnberg: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 57% (odds 1.70); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 43% (odds 2.24).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 60% (odds 1.57).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.2%), then 2–1 (9.3%) and 1–0 (8.6%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.