Girona vs Almería: prediction, tip and odds, 8 November 2026, Segunda División

Girona vs Almería betting prediction

Our pick for Girona against Almería on 8 November is Girona +0 on the Asian handicap at odds 1.58, a bet the market puts at a 62% chance. We also back Under 3.5 goals at 1.50, which bookmakers give a 65% chance. Our main pick leans on Girona's home form, while the Under 3.5 pick rests on Girona's recent results.

Almería sit second in the table, but Montilivi is the reason we side with Girona

Across this league campaign, Almería have collected 26 points from 12 fixtures, winning 8, drawing 2 and losing 2, while finding the net 23 times and shipping 10. Girona sit on 21 points from the same 12 games, with 6 victories, 3 draws and 3 losses, and their goal tally reads 22 scored to 11 conceded. Looking at the table alone, Almería are the stronger outfit, but the betting markets point the other way. On the road, however, Almería's returns look less impressive: 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 8 goals netted and 5 let in.

Girona's form at home is where we place our faith. Across their matches at Montilivi they have collected 4 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 16 goals while conceding 6. A team that rarely hands anything over on its own ground is exactly the kind of record we would want to anchor a result bet on.

Five matches from all competitions point the same way for Girona

Keep in mind that this run includes every competition, so it may not match what the league table shows. Girona played out a 0-0 draw with Mallorca at home, followed by a 1-1 at Tenerife, then beat FC Andorra 2-0 and won 5-1 against Celta de Vigo II. Their most recent game was a 1-0 defeat away to Real Sociedad II. Over those five matches they collected 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 3. Our main takeaway is their single loss in that stretch.

Almería's last five results read better on paper. Two home wins, 2-1 over Burgos and 3-0 over Leganés, sit alongside a 4-2 win away to Real Sociedad II, a 2-2 draw with Oviedo and a 1-1 draw at Eibar. That adds up to 3 wins and 2 draws without a single defeat, with 12 goals scored and 6 conceded. We accept that Almería are in good form. We are just not persuaded that a run like that should count for more than a home side this difficult to beat.

The head-to-head leans towards the home side

Across their last 16 head-to-head matches, Girona have collected 7 wins and 5 draws, while Almería have taken 4, and the goals stand at 26 for and 17 against. Our record's latest clash ended 0-0 in Almería on 14 January 2024. Earlier, on 22 October 2023, Girona had hammered Almería 5-2 on their own ground. The sample is far from conclusive, yet it tilts things toward Girona and backs the hosts in the match-result market.

No team news to change the picture

Neither squad has any reported injuries or suspensions, so the team news leaves our assessment untouched. Our read rests on recent results, head-to-head history and the odds on offer, and that trio gives us all we need.

What the odds reveal about the result and the goals

Girona come out as the most probable winner in the market at 46%, and their best available price is 2.07. Odds of 3.78 on a draw imply 26%, while Almería at a top price of 3.53 sit on 28%. Expected goals point to Girona 2, Almería 1, roughly 3 in all, with 1-1, 2-1 and 1-0 leading the exact-score list. Across the three outcomes, the built-in edge taken by the operators works out to 7.8%. What stands out is the disconnect: league standings put Almería ahead, yet the prices lean firmly toward Girona.

Best bet for Girona vs Almería: Girona +0

A Girona victory at +0 is a winning bet, a draw gives back your stake, and a loss means you lose it. Scores of 2-1, 1-0 and 2-0 pay out, 1-1 refunds the stake, and 1-2 or 0-1 lose. Our case rests on three points. Girona have dropped just 1 of their last 5 outings. At home in this tournament they have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat. Head to head, they have taken 7 of the last 16 meetings, while Almería have won 4. The 1.58 price sits near the 62% probability the market already implies, so this is not a value pick, but we believe the market has the correct side.

Why Under 3.5 is our second tip at 1.50

The argument for the total is tighter. Only 1 of Girona's last 5 matches has gone over 2.5 goals, and they have posted a clean sheet in 2 of them. That does not look like a team that pushes every game into high-scoring territory, so we expect the home side to hold the total lower instead of lifting it. The market offers 65% at best odds of 1.50. The bet lands on 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 and 0-1, and 1-1, 2-1 and 1-0 are the most likely exact scores in the market, so we rate it as the safer of our two tips.

Additional wagers worth a look alongside our picks

If you want more cover, Girona or draw (1X) at 1.36 fits our first tip well, with a 72% chance in the market and room to win on a draw. Over 1.5 goals at 1.25 is the shortest price on the page, at a 78% chance, and it sits comfortably beside our Under 3.5 tip, since the two together describe a match with two or three goals. Girona +0.75 at 1.25 is a 76% chance, and it spreads the stake across Girona +0.5 and Girona +1, so a narrow defeat by one goal costs only half the stake. Girona +0.25 at 1.42 is the last option we would look at, splitting the stake between Girona +0 and Girona +0.5 to pick up extra return in a drawn game, which the +0 line by itself cannot offer.

Girona to edge it, with modest stakes

Girona look likely to nudge this one at home, and Almería's league position is not enough on its own to make us back them against the hosts. On paper, Almería rank higher in this competition and have produced better results across all competitions than Girona have, so this is far from a comfortable selection. What tips it for us is Girona's home form and the head-to-head history, two factors the standings do not fully reflect. Our main selection is Girona +0 at 1.58, staked modestly, with Under 3.5 goals as a second wager.