Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Italy play France at home on 12 November 2026 · 19:45 at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza (Milan); the referee is István Kovács. For us, France (49%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Wins: Italy win, a draw. Half lost (half the stake back): Italy lose by 1. Loses: Italy lose by 2 or more.
Italy vs France: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Italy are 1st in the table, on 10 points after 5 matches (3W 1D 1L), and France are 2nd, on 10 points (3W 1D 1L).
- Attack and defence. On average Italy score 2.0 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.3; for France the figures are 1.8 scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Italy: 2W 1D 1L, goals 8–5; France: 3W 1D 0L, goals 7–2.
- Head to head. From 6 meetings: 3 wins for Italy, 2 wins for France and 1 draw, with the goals at 11–9.
What to expect
For us, France are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (10.9%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.52), and we rate it at 63%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 60% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 58% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 6; Italy 3 wins, 1 draw, France 2 wins.
- An average of 3.3 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Italy 8–5, France 7–2.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 58%.
- Out: Italy 0, France 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 60%, best price 1.57). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Italy: no absences. Absent for France: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Italy vs France: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 4.40 | 3.95 | 2.07 |
| Market average | 3.70 | 3.68 | 1.95 |
| Lowest odds | 3.40 | 3.39 | 1.71 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 1.18 | 79.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.69 | 1.64 | 57.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 2.24 | 42.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.65 | 2.54 | 37.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.54 | 60.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.34 | 39.7% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 12/11/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.8%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Italy 1–1 France, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Italy 1st (10 points), France 2nd (10 points).
- Form in the competition: Italy 2W 1D 1L (8:5), France 3W 1D 0L (7:2).
- H2H: 6 matches: Italy 3W 1D 2L, goals 11–9.
- Absences: Italy 0, France 0.
Who will win Italy vs France?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Italy vs France: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Italy vs France: team news and absences
Italy
- No reported absences
France
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
League A – Group A
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Italy | 5 | 3-1-1 | 11:6 | 10 |
| 2 | France | 5 | 3-1-1 | 8:5 | 10 |
| 3 |  Belgium | 5 | 3-0-2 | 8:6 | 9 |
| 4 |  Türkiye | 5 | 0-0-5 | 3:13 | 0 |
Recent matches
Italy
Home and away
Italy vs France: last matches of both teams
Italy
France
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
ItalyWWDWLFranceLWDWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Italy vs France?
Italy +0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.92); Under 3.5 goals (1.52).
Who will win Italy vs France?
We estimate: Italy win 26%, draw 26%, France win 49%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 12 November 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan. Referee: István Kovács.
Who will be missing?
Italy: no absences. France: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 58% (odds 1.69); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 42% (odds 2.30).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 60% (odds 1.57).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.9%), then 1–2 (9.5%) and 0–1 (8.7%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.