Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Leganés play Mallorca at home on 24 October 2026 · 15:15 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque (Leganés); the referee is O. Rivera Olmedo. For us, Mallorca (49%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Leganés vs Mallorca: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Leganés are 17th in the table, on 12 points after 12 matches (3W 3D 6L), and Mallorca are 5th, on 22 points (6W 4D 2L).
- Head to head. From 7 meetings: 1 win for Leganés, 3 wins for Mallorca and 3 draws, with the goals at 3–5.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 1–1 score estimate, roughly 2 goals in all, and 0–1 (13.2%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
In the goals market we pick Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.76), and we rate it at 57%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 49% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 43% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 7; Leganés 1 win, 3 draws, Mallorca 3 wins.
- An average of 1.1 goals per meeting between these teams.
- Expected: roughly 2 goals; over 2.5 goals: 43%.
- Out: Leganés 0, Mallorca 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – no
Alternative tip: BTTS – no (probability 51%, best price 1.82). With roughly 2 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Leganés: no absences. Absent for Mallorca: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Leganés vs Mallorca: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 4.54 | 3.50 | 2.18 |
| Market average | 4.11 | 3.29 | 1.94 |
| Lowest odds | 3.60 | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.44 | 1.36 | 68.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 2.18 | 43.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.76 | 1.67 | 56.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.10 | 3.87 | 24.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.93 | 1.91 | 48.6% |
| BTTS – no | 1.82 | 1.80 | 51.4% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 24/10/26, 14:13. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.8%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Leganés 0–1 Mallorca, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Leganés 17th (12 points), Mallorca 5th (22 points).
- H2H: 7 matches: Leganés 1W 3D 3L, goals 3–5.
- Absences: Leganés 0, Mallorca 0.
Who will win Leganés vs Mallorca?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Leganés vs Mallorca: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Leganés vs Mallorca: team news and absences
Leganés
- No reported absences
Mallorca
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Castellón | 12 | 8-3-1 | 23:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Almería | 12 | 8-2-2 | 23:10 | 26 |
| 3 |  Eibar | 12 | 7-2-3 | 21:14 | 23 |
| 4 |  Granada CF | 12 | 7-2-3 | 20:14 | 23 |
| 5 | Mallorca | 12 | 6-4-2 | 15:7 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sporting Gijón | 12 | 7-1-4 | 13:13 | 22 |
| 7 |  Girona | 12 | 6-3-3 | 22:11 | 21 |
| 8 |  Burgos | 12 | 6-3-3 | 17:13 | 21 |
| 9 |  Oviedo | 12 | 5-3-4 | 17:15 | 18 |
| 10 |  Sabadell | 12 | 4-5-3 | 12:11 | 17 |
| 11 |  Las Palmas | 12 | 5-2-5 | 17:21 | 17 |
| 12 |  Córdoba | 12 | 5-1-6 | 19:22 | 16 |
| 13 |  Valladolid | 12 | 4-3-5 | 20:19 | 15 |
| 14 |  Tenerife | 11 | 3-5-3 | 13:15 | 14 |
| 15 |  Eldense | 12 | 4-2-6 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 16 |  Celta de Vigo II | 12 | 3-4-5 | 18:23 | 13 |
| 17 | Leganés | 12 | 3-3-6 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 18 |  Real Sociedad II | 12 | 3-2-7 | 15:22 | 11 |
| 19 |  Cádiz | 12 | 2-4-6 | 15:16 | 10 |
| 20 |  FC Andorra | 11 | 3-1-7 | 15:20 | 10 |
| 21 |  Albacete | 12 | 2-1-9 | 10:23 | 7 |
| 22 |  AD Ceuta FC | 12 | 1-2-9 | 10:27 | 5 |
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Leganés vs Mallorca?
Mallorca -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.78); Under 2.5 goals (1.76).
Who will win Leganés vs Mallorca?
We estimate: Leganés win 23%, draw 29%, Mallorca win 49%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 24 October 2026, kick-off: 15:15, venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganés. Referee: O. Rivera Olmedo.
Who will be missing?
Leganés: no absences. Mallorca: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 43% (odds 2.30); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 57% (odds 1.76).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 49% (odds 1.93).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 0–1 as most likely (13.2%), then 1–1 (12.5%) and 0–2 (9.5%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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