Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia: prediction, tip and odds, 5 November 2026, UEFA Europa League

Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia betting prediction

Jagiellonia travel to the Vasil Levski National Stadium to face Levski Sofia on 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45. This is matchday 4 of the UEFA Europa League league phase. Levski are 17th after collecting four points from three matches, whereas Jagiellonia occupy 27th with three. On paper the gulf looks wider than it truly is, and we believe the odds reveal more about this contest than the league table does.

Who arrives in better shape?

Across all competitions, Levski's recent form reads as a single victory alongside a draw and a loss, with their attack and defence each producing three goals. Their only setback came in a 0-1 home reverse against Red Bull Salzburg on 17 September, which is also their sole home fixture in this tournament. They then travelled to NEC Nijmegen and fought out a 1-1 draw on 15 October, before edging a 2-1 win at Plzeň on 22 October. One win in three is hardly a streak worth celebrating.

Across all competitions, Jagiellonia have won three and lost two of their last five, scoring 10 and conceding seven. The result that hurts most is the latest one: they were beaten 0-3 at their own ground by Anderlecht on 22 October, a week after they had beaten Ararat-Armenia 3-1 in front of their fans. We put more weight on their recent wins than on their recent defeats, because they have won away at FC Iberia 1999 in their last five, which gives us a bit more evidence to lean on.

Where the goals have come from

In this competition, Levski have yet to win, draw or lose at home beyond a single defeat, having conceded one goal and scored none. That is the biggest concern for the hosts. Jagiellonia's away form is equally bleak: no wins, no draws and one loss, with one goal scored and two conceded in a 1-2 defeat.

Looking at the full season rather than just the last three matches gives a fuller view. Levski have scored 3 and conceded 3, which works out to about one goal for and one against per game. Jagiellonia have scored 13 and conceded 9, roughly 1.9 for and 1.3 against per match. Our expected goals model puts Levski near 2 and Jagiellonia near 1, so we are looking at around three goals overall. Among exact outcomes, 1-1 comes out at 11.8%, 1-0 at 10.2% and 2-1 at 9.4%. No single score deserves much weight on its own, yet 1-1 is the one we keep coming back to.

No earlier meeting to lean on

Our data contains no earlier meetings between these two clubs, so there is no head-to-head pattern to lean on. The case rests on form, venue and the prices. That works for us, since the form points one way: Levski have yet to win at home in this setting, and Jagiellonia have also failed to win away.

Five names out for Levski, four for Jagiellonia

Five Levski players are unavailable: P. Hristov, O. Kamdem, R. Kirilov, A. Mitkov and M. Sangare. On the other side, the visitors are down four men, D. Drachal, C. Polak, N. Wojtuszek and Z. Zalewski. Losing five players hurts a home team more when that team is already short of goals, and Levski have not scored in their home game here. We think that matters more for Levski than the four Jagiellonia absences do for the visitors.

Which bet do we back?

We are backing the X2 double chance, draw or Jagiellonia, priced at 1.87 with a 52% probability. Three factors support it. Jagiellonia have collected three wins from their last five across all competitions, while Levski have managed just one win from their last three. The market's 52% at best odds of 1.87 also offers value we are comfortable accepting. This selection cashes on a 1-1, a 0-1 or a 1-2, and it fails on a 1-0, a 2-1 or a 2-0. Levski are the favourites on the result at 48% with best odds of 2.06. We take that seriously, but a home side that cannot win at home is not one we would back outright.

Our number two pick is Both teams to score at 2.08, with a 47% probability. In Levski's last three games, both sides found the net twice, and Levski went scoreless in just one. Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in three of their last five, and they failed to score in only one of those five. With roughly three goals expected overall, we find the goals market the more natural choice here. It pays out on a 1-1, a 2-1 or a 1-2, and it fails on a 1-0, a 2-0 or a 0-1.

Additional wagers to consider

• Over 2.5 goals at odds 1.84 (chance 53%). It sits well with the expected total of about three goals and with our second tip.
• Jagiellonia +1 at odds 1.45 (chance 66%). Only a loss by two or more goals sinks this ticket; a single-goal defeat leaves the stake intact.
• Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.42 (chance 68%). A fair number if the game settles into a one-to-two-goal pattern.

The bookmakers favour Levski, yet a closer look at the underlying data makes that price look generous. Levski have failed to win on this ground, and five of their players are unavailable.
We anticipate a high-scoring game in which the hosts find it hard to put on a convincing performance, and Jagiellonia have a genuine route to a result. Size the X2 and the goals bet modestly.