Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Estoril against Moreirense on 25 October 2026 · 15:30 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota (Estoril), and C. Macedo will referee. Estoril (52%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Estoril vs Moreirense: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Estoril are 18th in the table, on 2 points after 10 matches (0W 2D 8L), and Moreirense are 9th, on 14 points (4W 2D 4L).
- Attack and defence. On average Estoril score 0.5 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.5; for Moreirense the figures are 1.0 scored and 1.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Estoril: 0W 2D 6L, goals 4–12; Moreirense: 2W 2D 4L, goals 8–15.
- Head to head. From 19 meetings: 6 wins for Estoril, 6 wins for Moreirense and 7 draws, with the goals at 26–25.
What to expect
For us, Estoril are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (11.7%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
What stands out is that the table favours the Moreirense, whereas the betting market leans slightly towards the home side. When the indicators disagree like this, the match is difficult to read, and a more careful bet is the sensible choice.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.83), and we rate it at 51%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 51% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 49% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 19; Estoril 6 wins, 7 draws, Moreirense 6 wins.
- An average of 2.7 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Estoril 4–12, Moreirense 8–15.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 49%.
- Out: Estoril 0, Moreirense 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 51%, best price 1.83). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Estoril: no absences. Absent for Moreirense: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Estoril vs Moreirense: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.88 | 3.75 | 4.44 |
| Market average | 1.82 | 3.61 | 4.24 |
| Lowest odds | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.32 | 1.29 | 72.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.01 | 1.93 | 49.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 1.86 | 51.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.42 | 3.30 | 28.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.83 | 1.80 | 51.5% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.92 | 48.5% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 25/10/26, 13:39. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.3%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Estoril 1–1 Moreirense, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Estoril 18th (2 points), Moreirense 9th (14 points).
- Form in the competition: Estoril 0W 2D 6L (4:12), Moreirense 2W 2D 4L (8:15).
- H2H: 19 matches: Estoril 6W 7D 6L, goals 26–25.
- Absences: Estoril 0, Moreirense 0.
Who will win Estoril vs Moreirense?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Estoril vs Moreirense: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Estoril vs Moreirense: team news and absences
Estoril
- No reported absences
Moreirense
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 10 | 6-2-2 | 13:7 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicão | 10 | 2-4-4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 | Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Estoril
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
EstorilLLLLLMoreirenseWWLDWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Estoril vs Moreirense?
Estoril -0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.86); Both teams to score (1.83).
Who will win Estoril vs Moreirense?
We estimate: Estoril win 52%, draw 26%, Moreirense win 22%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 25 October 2026, kick-off: 15:30, venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril. Referee: C. Macedo.
Who will be missing?
Estoril: no absences. Moreirense: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 49% (odds 2.01); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 51% (odds 1.90).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 51% (odds 1.83).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.7%), then 1–0 (11.7%) and 2–1 (9.6%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.