Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 4–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Newport County v Chesterfield: 30 October 2026 · 19:45 at Rodney Parade (Newport), with Z. Kennard-Kettle refereeing. We have Chesterfield (54%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Newport County vs Chesterfield: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Newport County are 14th in the table, on 18 points after 14 matches (4W 6D 4L), and Chesterfield are 10th, on 19 points (5W 4D 5L).
- Attack and defence. On average Newport County score 1.2 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.2; for Chesterfield the figures are 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Newport County: 3W 6D 4L, goals 16–16; Chesterfield: 5W 4D 4L, goals 23–17.
- Head to head. From 9 meetings: 4 wins for Newport County, 4 wins for Chesterfield and 1 draw, with the goals at 16–16.
What to expect
For us, Chesterfield are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 0–1 (12.0%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.87), and we rate it at 51%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 51% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 50% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 9; Newport County 4 wins, 1 draw, Chesterfield 4 wins.
- An average of 3.6 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Newport County 16–16, Chesterfield 23–17.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 50%.
- Out: Newport County 0, Chesterfield 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 51%, best price 1.87). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Newport County: no absences. Absent for Chesterfield: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Newport County vs Chesterfield: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 5.00 | 3.95 | 1.98 |
| Market average | 4.60 | 3.67 | 1.72 |
| Lowest odds | 3.02 | 3.01 | 1.65 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.26 | 73.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 1.87 | 50.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.93 | 1.89 | 49.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.30 | 3.15 | 29.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.87 | 1.81 | 51.3% |
| BTTS – no | 1.93 | 1.91 | 48.7% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 30/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 7.8%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Newport County 0–1 Chesterfield, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Newport County 14th (18 points), Chesterfield 10th (19 points).
- Form in the competition: Newport County 3W 6D 4L (16:16), Chesterfield 5W 4D 4L (23:17).
- H2H: 9 matches: Newport County 4W 1D 4L, goals 16–16.
- Absences: Newport County 0, Chesterfield 0.
Who will win Newport County vs Chesterfield?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Newport County vs Chesterfield: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Newport County vs Chesterfield: team news and absences
Newport County
- No reported absences
Chesterfield
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Salford City | 14 | 10-1-3 | 25:15 | 31 |
| 2 |  Barnet | 13 | 7-5-1 | 28:18 | 26 |
| 3 |  Walsall | 13 | 5-7-1 | 21:12 | 22 |
| 4 |  Crewe | 14 | 5-7-2 | 17:17 | 22 |
| 5 |  Cheltenham | 14 | 6-3-5 | 23:25 | 21 |
| 6 |  Grimsby | 14 | 5-5-4 | 24:18 | 20 |
| 7 |  York | 14 | 5-5-4 | 24:21 | 20 |
| 8 |  Gillingham | 14 | 5-5-4 | 20:19 | 20 |
| 9 |  Accrington ST | 14 | 4-7-3 | 23:17 | 19 |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5-4-5 | 24:21 | 19 |
| 11 |  Tranmere | 14 | 4-7-3 | 19:17 | 19 |
| 12 |  Exeter City | 14 | 5-4-5 | 11:9 | 19 |
| 13 |  Swindon Town | 14 | 5-4-5 | 15:17 | 19 |
| 14 | Newport County | 14 | 4-6-4 | 20:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Shrewsbury | 14 | 5-3-6 | 17:22 | 18 |
| 16 |  Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4-5-5 | 18:18 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5-1-8 | 17:23 | 16 |
| 18 |  Oldham | 14 | 4-3-7 | 15:19 | 15 |
| 19 |  Port Vale | 12 | 4-3-5 | 10:14 | 15 |
| 20 |  Rochdale | 14 | 4-3-7 | 17:26 | 15 |
| 21 |  Northampton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 9:10 | 14 |
| 22 |  Rotherham | 14 | 2-6-6 | 18:25 | 12 |
| 23 |  Colchester | 13 | 2-6-5 | 12:19 | 12 |
| 24 |  Crawley Town | 12 | 2-3-7 | 13:21 | 9 |
Recent matches
Newport County
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
Newport CountyWLDDWChesterfieldLWDLDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Newport County vs Chesterfield?
Chesterfield -0.5 (Asian handicap) (2.00); Both teams to score (1.87).
Who will win Newport County vs Chesterfield?
We estimate: Newport County win 20%, draw 25%, Chesterfield win 54%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 30 October 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Rodney Parade, Newport. Referee: Z. Kennard-Kettle.
Who will be missing?
Newport County: no absences. Chesterfield: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 50% (odds 1.95); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 50% (odds 1.93).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 51% (odds 1.87).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 0–1 as most likely (12.0%), then 1–1 (11.4%) and 0–2 (10.2%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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