Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
San Marino v Belarus: 12 November 2026 · 19:45 at San Marino Stadium (Serravalle), with Goga Kikacheishvili refereeing. We have Belarus (83%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
San Marino vs Belarus: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. San Marino are 4th in the table, on 0 points after 5 matches (0W 0D 5L), and Belarus are 2nd, on 10 points (3W 1D 1L).
- Attack and defence. On average San Marino score 0.3 goals a match in the competition and concede 4.0; for Belarus the figures are 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Form in the competition. San Marino: 0W 0D 4L, goals 1–16; Belarus: 2W 1D 1L, goals 5–2.
- Head to head. From 4 meetings: 0 wins for San Marino, 4 wins for Belarus and 0 draws, with the goals at 0–13.
What to expect
For us, Belarus are the more likely winners. We estimate a 0–3 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 0–2 (16.2%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
Odds of 1.16 on the result do not offer much, so it is worth turning to the goals markets: Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.48), which we rate at 64%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 29% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 57% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 4; San Marino 0 wins, 0 draws, Belarus 4 wins.
- An average of 3.3 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: San Marino 1–16, Belarus 5–2.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 57%.
- Out: San Marino 0, Belarus 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals (probability 57%, best price 1.72). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for San Marino: no absences. Absent for Belarus: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
San Marino vs Belarus: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 26.00 | 10.17 | 1.16 |
| Market average | 19.41 | 8.34 | 1.13 |
| Lowest odds | 12.04 | 6.38 | 1.07 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 1.19 | 78.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.72 | 1.65 | 57.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.29 | 2.20 | 42.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.72 | 2.60 | 35.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 3.80 | 3.19 | 29.2% |
| BTTS – no | 1.36 | 1.31 | 70.8% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 12/11/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.4%.
At a glance
- Likely result: San Marino 0–2 Belarus, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: San Marino 4th (0 points), Belarus 2nd (10 points).
- Form in the competition: San Marino 0W 0D 4L (1:16), Belarus 2W 1D 1L (5:2).
- H2H: 4 matches: San Marino 0W 0D 4L, goals 0–13.
- Absences: San Marino 0, Belarus 0.
Who will win San Marino vs Belarus?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
San Marino vs Belarus: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
San Marino vs Belarus: team news and absences
San Marino
- No reported absences
Belarus
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
League C – Group A
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Albania | 5 | 4-0-1 | 10:3 | 12 |
| 2 | Belarus | 5 | 3-1-1 | 7:2 | 10 |
| 3 |  Finland | 5 | 2-1-2 | 9:4 | 7 |
| 4 | San Marino | 5 | 0-0-5 | 1:18 | 0 |
Recent matches
San Marino
Home and away
San Marino vs Belarus: last matches of both teams
San Marino
Belarus
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
San MarinoLLLLLBelarusWWWDLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for San Marino vs Belarus?
Over 2.5 goals (1.72); Belarus to win (1.16).
Who will win San Marino vs Belarus?
We estimate: San Marino win 5%, draw 11%, Belarus win 83%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 12 November 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: San Marino Stadium, Serravalle. Referee: Goga Kikacheishvili.
Who will be missing?
San Marino: no absences. Belarus: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 57% (odds 1.72); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 43% (odds 2.29).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 29% (odds 3.80).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 0–2 as most likely (16.2%), then 0–3 (13.8%) and 0–1 (12.7%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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