Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Alavés against Málaga on 23 October 2026 · 20:00 at Estadio de Mendizorroza (Victoria-Gasteiz), and Carlos Muñiz Muñoz, Spain will referee. Alavés (59%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Alavés vs Málaga: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Alavés are 11th in the table, on 12 points after 11 matches (3W 3D 5L), and Málaga are 20th, on 5 points (0W 5D 6L).
- Attack and defence. On average Alavés score 1.4 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.1; for Málaga the figures are 0.7 scored and 2.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Alavés: 3W 2D 4L, goals 13–10; Málaga: 0W 4D 5L, goals 6–18.
- Head to head. From 7 meetings: 4 wins for Alavés, 1 win for Málaga and 2 draws, with the goals at 10–5.
What to expect
For us, Alavés are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–0 (14.0%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
In the goals market we pick BTTS: no (odds 1.80), and we rate it at 54%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 46% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 46% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 7; Alavés 4 wins, 2 draws, Málaga 1 win.
- An average of 2.1 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Alavés 13–10, Málaga 6–18.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 46%.
- Out: Alavés 2, Málaga 6.
Alternative tip: BTTS – no
Alternative tip: BTTS – no (probability 54%, best price 1.80). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Alavés: F. Garces, M. Rodriguez. Absent for Málaga: J. Cruz, J. Lobete, P. Martinez, J. Munoz, D. Murillo, A. Ochoa. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Alavés vs Málaga: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.69 | 3.90 | 6.50 |
| Market average | 1.63 | 3.81 | 5.96 |
| Lowest odds | 1.57 | 3.60 | 5.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 | 1.33 | 70.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 2.05 | 46.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 1.78 | 53.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.75 | 3.51 | 26.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.10 | 2.01 | 46.3% |
| BTTS – no | 1.80 | 1.74 | 53.7% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 23/10/26, 18:08. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.6%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Alavés 1–0 Málaga, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Alavés 11th (12 points), Málaga 20th (5 points).
- Form in the competition: Alavés 3W 2D 4L (13:10), Málaga 0W 4D 5L (6:18).
- H2H: 7 matches: Alavés 4W 2D 1L, goals 10–5.
- Absences: Alavés 2, Málaga 6.
Who will win Alavés vs Málaga?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Alavés vs Málaga: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Alavés vs Málaga: team news and absences
Alavés
- F. Garcessuspended · will miss the match
- M. Rodriguezankle injury · will miss the match
Málaga
- J. Cruzmuscle injury · will miss the match
- J. Lobeteknee injury · will miss the match
- P. Martinezfoot injury · will miss the match
- J. Munozcalf injury · will miss the match
- D. Murilloknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Ochoaknee injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 11 | 5-2-4 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 3-5-3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 10 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 11 | Alavés | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 | Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Alavés
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
AlavésLDLLDMálagaLDLDLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Alavés vs Málaga?
Under 2.5 goals (1.86); Alavés to win (1.69).
Who will win Alavés vs Málaga?
We estimate: Alavés win 59%, draw 25%, Málaga win 16%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 23 October 2026, kick-off: 20:00, venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza, Victoria-Gasteiz. Referee: Carlos Muñiz Muñoz, Spain.
Who will be missing?
Alavés: F. Garces, M. Rodriguez. Málaga: J. Cruz, J. Lobete, P. Martinez, J. Munoz, D. Murillo, A. Ochoa. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 46% (odds 2.10); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 54% (odds 1.86).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 46% (odds 2.10).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–0 as most likely (14.0%), then 2–0 (11.9%) and 1–1 (11.2%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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