Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Celta Vigo play Alavés at home on 18 October 2026 · 15:15 at Municipal de Balaídos (Vigo); the referee is José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain. For us, there is no clear favourite. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Celta Vigo vs Alavés: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Celta Vigo are 10th in the table, on 12 points after 11 matches (2W 6D 3L), and Alavés are 11th, on 12 points (3W 3D 5L).
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 1–1 score estimate, roughly 2 goals in all, and 1–0 (13.9%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
In the goals market we pick Over 1.5 goals (odds 1.50), and we rate it at 64%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 46% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 39% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 2 goals; over 2.5 goals: 39%.
- Out: Celta Vigo 0, Alavés 0.
Alternative tip: Under 2.5 goals
Alternative tip: Under 2.5 goals (probability 61%, best price 1.61). With roughly 2 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Celta Vigo: no absences. Absent for Alavés: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Celta Vigo vs Alavés: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.37 | 3.24 | 3.70 |
| Market average | 2.27 | 3.15 | 3.47 |
| Lowest odds | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.50 | 1.47 | 63.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.55 | 2.48 | 38.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.61 | 1.55 | 61.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 5.25 | 4.89 | 19.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.05 | 2.04 | 45.6% |
| BTTS – no | 1.75 | 1.71 | 54.4% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 18/10/26, 13:33. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.6%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Celta Vigo 1–0 Alavés, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Celta Vigo 10th (12 points), Alavés 11th (12 points).
- Absences: Celta Vigo 0, Alavés 0.
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Alavés?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Celta Vigo vs Alavés: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Celta Vigo vs Alavés: team news and absences
Celta Vigo
- No reported absences
Alavés
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 11 | 5-2-4 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 3-5-3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 10 | Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 11 | Alavés | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Celta Vigo
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Celta Vigo vs Alavés?
Celta Vigo -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.99); Over 1.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Alavés?
We estimate: Celta Vigo win 42%, draw 30%, Alavés win 28%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 18 October 2026, kick-off: 15:15, venue: Municipal de Balaídos, Vigo. Referee: José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain.
Who will be missing?
Celta Vigo: no absences. Alavés: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 39% (odds 2.55); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 61% (odds 1.61).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 46% (odds 2.05).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–0 as most likely (13.9%), then 1–1 (13.2%) and 0–0 (11.1%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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